文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于精细化风速场模拟的山地林火蔓延

英文题名：Simulation of Mountain Forest Fire Spread Based on Refined Wind Speed Field

作者：徐有城[1] 万兴永[3] 陈兵[4] 赵凤君[5] 刘晓东[6] 叶江霞[2]

第一作者：徐有城

机构：[1]西南林业大学水土保持学院,昆明650224;[2]西南林业大学林学院云南森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室昆明650224;[3]四川省地质调查研究院调查规划研究中心,成都610017;[4]四川省林业和草原调查规划院,成都610081;[5]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所、国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室北京100091;[6]北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院北京100083

年份：2025

卷号：61

期号：4

起止页码：56-68

中文期刊名：林业科学

外文期刊名：Scientia Silvae Sinicae

收录：;EI(收录号：20251718302724);北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(32360392);国家林业和草原局科技成果国家级推广项目(2023133128);国家“十四五”重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006804);云南省兴滇英才产业创新项目(YFGRC202419)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：林火蔓延;元胞自动机;空间精细化;风速场

外文关键词：forest fire spread;cellular automaton;spatio-temporal refinement;wind speed field

分类号：S762.2

摘要：【目的】根据山地微环境及其与风速互作机理进行精细化风速场模拟,探究其对林火蔓延精度的影响,为林火科学防控提供参考。【方法】以云南省2006年安宁“3.29”火场为研究对象,分析影响林火蔓延的关键气象驱动因子,并在30 m空间尺度上进行风速场GIS地理模拟。基于元胞自动机理论,结合毛贤敏修正的王正非林火蔓延经验模型,实现林火蔓延模拟,通过与历史火场档案及常规反距离权重和克里金内插方法的气象模拟结果进行比较,评估模拟精度。【结果】1)基于机理模型分析的风速驱动因子表明,风速与海拔呈正相关,与坡度、地形起伏度、地表粗糙度和地表温度呈负相关。利用多元线性回归分析构建的30 m空间尺度的平均风速场显示,火灾发生区周围平均风速场最大风速为3.70 m·s^(?1)、最小为0.28 m·s^(?1)。2)结合火场周围地形及可燃物数据,模拟3月30日—4月3日的火灾发生过程,以火灾历史档案逐日火线范围为参考,精度验证结果表明,基于精细化风速场模拟的结果在不同时间段内均表现出较高的模拟精度,其中4月1日的模拟结果最优,S?rensen系数和重合精度分别为0.83和93.28%,3月30日的模拟结果精度相对较低,S?rensen系数和重合精度分别为0.65和80%。与2组插值风速场模拟结果相比,基于精细化风速场模拟结果的重合精度和SC系数分别最大提高6.67%、11.67%和0.11、0.08。【结论】与常规反距离权重和克里金内插方法相比,模拟的30 m尺度风速场数据在空间异质性和连续性方面表现更佳,能够更精细反映山地风速场的空间格局,有效提高林火蔓延模拟精度。本研究综合考虑宏观气象条件和微观地表特征,利用GIS空间建模对影响林火蔓延的关键驱动因子进行精细化刻画,实现了更精准的林火蔓延模拟。
【Objective】This study aims to explore impact of the fine wind speed field on the accuracy of forest fire spread,through simulating the fine wind speed based on the mountain microenvironment and its interaction mechanism with wind speed,so as to provide reference for the scientific decision-making of firefighting.【Method】The 2006 Anning“3.29”fire in Yunnan Province was targeted,the key meteorological driving factors affecting the spread of forest fires was analyzed,and GIS geographic simulation of wind velocity field was performed on a 30 m spatial scale.Based on the theory of cellular automata,the simulation of forest fire spread was realized by combining with Wang Zhengfei’s forest fire spread model modified by Mao Xianmin.The simulation accuracy was evaluated by comparing the meteorological simulation results of historical fire archives,and conventional inverse distance weight and Kriging interpolation methods.【Result】1)The wind speed field driving factors analyzed with the mechanism model showed that wind speed field was positively correlated with elevation,while negatively correlated with slope,terrain relief,surface roughness,and surface temperature.The average wind speed field field at 30 m scale constructed using multiple linear regression analysis showed that the maximum wind speed field of the average wind speed field field around the fire occurrence area is 3.70 m·s^(-1),and the minimum is 0.28 m·s^(-1).2)Combined with the topography and combustible data around the fire,the fire occurrence process from March 30 to April 3 was simulated.The day-by-day range in the fire history archives was used as a reference,and the accuracy validation results showed that the results based on the refined wind speed field simulation showed high simulation accuracy in different time periods,among which the simulation results on April 1 were optimal with S?rensen coefficient and coincidence accuracy of 0.83 and 93.28%,respectively.The simulation results on March 30 had relatively low accuracy with S?rensen coefficient and coincidence accuracy of 0.65 and 80%,respectively.Compared with the two sets of interpolated wind speed field field simulation results,the overlap accuracy and S?rensen coefficient based on the refined wind speed field simulation results were maximally improved by 6.67%,11.67%,and 0.11,0.08,respectively.【Conclusion】Compared with the conventional inverse distance weight and Kriging interpolation methods,the simulated 30 m-scale wind speed field data performs better in terms of spatial heterogeneity and continuity,and can reflect the spatial pattern of mountain wind speed field in a finer way,thus effectively improving the accuracy of forest fire spread simulation.In this study,the key driving factors affecting the spread of forest fires are refined by spatial modeling using GIS,taking into account the macro-meteorological conditions and micro-surface characteristics,and a more accurate simulation of forest fire spread is achieved.