文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于XGBoost-SHAP的三峡库区生态屏障区生态系统服务权衡及驱动力分析

英文题名：Analysis of Trade-offs and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services in Ecological Barrier Zone of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on XGBoost-SHAP Model

作者：杨佳[1,2,3] 斛如媛[1,2] 赵海平[1,2] 勾蒙蒙[1,2] 欧阳帅[3] 刘常富[1,2] 肖文发[1,2]

第一作者：杨佳

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091;[2]湖北秭归三峡库区森林生态系统定位观测研究站,湖北秭归443600;[3]中南林业科技大学生态环境学院,长沙410004

年份：2025

卷号：39

期号：6

起止页码：127-138

中文期刊名：水土保持学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1305205)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：生态系统服务;权衡与协同;XGBoost-SHAP模型;驱动因素;三峡库区生态屏障区

外文关键词：ecosystem services;trade-offs and synergies;XGBoost-SHAP model;driving factors;ecological barrier zone of Three Gorges Reservoir area

分类号：S157.1

摘要：[目的]探究三峡库区生态屏障区生态系统服务权衡及其驱动因素,为区域生态系统综合管理和生态安全保障提供科学依据。[方法]基于三峡库区生态屏障区2000-2023年土地利用/覆被数据、气象数据、土壤数据等地理多源数据,运用CASA、RUSLE和InVEST等模型系统评估产水服务、碳固存、土壤保持、生境维持和水质净化5种典型生态系统服务,探讨各生态系统服务间权衡与协同关系,并进一步利用XGBoost-SHAP模型揭示生态系统服务权衡关键驱动因子。[结果] 1)产水服务、碳固存和土壤保持服务在2000-2023年呈先下降后增加的趋势,而生境质量、水质净化则呈下降趋势;在空间上,产水服务、生境维持、土壤保持、水质净化高值区主要分布在中部、东部,碳固存则表现为由中部向东西两侧递减。2)5种生态系统服务之间整体以协同关系为主,协同区主要分布在生态屏障区中部及海拔较高、植被覆盖度高的区域,而权衡区主要分布在河流两岸区域、西部的重庆城市区及东部邻近宜昌城区的区域。3)降水增长率、坡度、海拔及植被盖度是决定生态系统服务权衡关系的主要驱动因子,其影响存在阈值效应,而人口密度在一定程度上加剧生态系统服务之间的权衡关系。[结论]在今后生态屏障区的生态修复工程中,应更加关注自然和人为驱动对权衡关系的非线性影响和阈值效应,以更加精准地实现生态系统服务的多功能提升。
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the trade-offs among ecosystem services and their driving factors in the ecological barrier zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir area,thereby providing a scientific basis for integrated ecosystem management and ecological security in the region.[Methods]Based on multi-source geographic data including land use/cover data,meteorological data,and soil data in the ecological barrier zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir area from 2000 to 2023,the CASA,RUSLE,and InVEST models were employed to systematically evaluate five typical ecosystem services:Water yield,carbon sequestration,soil conservation,habitat maintenance,and water purification.The trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services were examined,and the XGBoost-SHAP model was further utilized to identify the key driving factors of trade-offs among ecosystem services.[Results]1)Water yield,carbon sequestration,and soil conservation showed an initial decrease followed by an increasing trend from 2000 to 2023,while habitat quality and water purification showed a declining trend.Spatially,the high-value areas for water yield,habitat maintenance,soil conservation,and water purification were mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions,while carbon sequestration exhibited a decreasing trend from the central regions towards the eastern and western regions.2)Overall,synergistic relationships dominated among the five ecosystem services,and the synergistic regions were primarily distributed in the central part of the ecological barrier zone and regions with higher altitudes and greater vegetation cover.In contrast,the trade-off effects were mainly observed along banks of the river,as well as in the urban area of Chongqing to the west and the region adjacent to the urban area of Yichang to the east.3)Precipitation growth rate,slope,altitude,and vegetation cover were the main driving factors determining trade-offs among ecosystem services,and their impacts exhibited certain threshold effect.Population density was found to exacerbate trade-offs among ecosystem services to some extent.[Conclusion]Future ecological restoration projects in the ecological barrier zone should place greater emphasis on the non-linear impacts and threshold effects of natural and anthropogenic-driven factors on trade-offs,so as to achieve a more precise multifunctional enhancement of ecosystem services.