文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：川西理县林业有害生物危害规模及预测

英文题名：Scale and Prediction of Forest Pests in Lixian County of Western Sichuan,China

作者：杨昌旭[1] 余荣兵[1] 刘怀君[1] 许格希[2,3] 余美霓[4] 周珠丽[1] 史作民[2,3,5]

第一作者：杨昌旭

机构：[1]理县林业和草原局,四川理县623100;[2]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091;[3]四川米亚罗森林生态系统定位观测研究站,四川理县623100;[4]四川师范大学数学科学学院,四川成都610066;[5]南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京210037

年份：2021

卷号：1

期号：2

起止页码：80-86

中文期刊名：陆地生态系统与保护学报

外文期刊名：Terrestrial Ecosystem and Conservation

基金：中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务专项资金项目(CAFYBB2017MA008;CAFYBB2018ZA003);“十三五”国家重点研发计划专题(2017YFC0505001-02)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：林业有害生物;危害规模;年际动态;模型预测;建议对策;川西

外文关键词：forest pests;damage scale;annual dynamics;model prediction;suggestions and solutions;Western Sichuan

分类号：S76

摘要：【目的】分析林业有害生物危害规模的年际动态,分类构建模型预测它们的危害方式多样性与潜在危害程度,为加强林业监测、提升森林质量与碳汇能力提供指导与保障。【方法】整合了川西理县近15年(2007—2021)森林病虫鼠害的监测数据,分析对比多种林业有害生物类型以及单一类型年际之间对主要造林树种造成危害面积的差异性,拟合有害生物发生规模的年际变化规律,构建模型预测到2030年时该地区林业有害生物的连年发生规模。【结果】研究发现森林病害是最主要的林业生物危害类型,占比高达58.1%~93.8%,其中华山松(Pinus armandii)与油松(P.tabuliformis)病害呈直线显著增加趋势,其余病害如云杉(Picea asperata)病害和岷江柏木(Cupressus chengiana)—侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)病害近年呈下降趋势。森林虫害潜叶蛾(Leucoptera sp.)和木橑尺蠖(Culcula panterinaria)的危害面积呈显著下降趋势,而森林鼠害高山鼠兔(Ochotona alpina)危害面积则呈动态波动,但近年呈显著上升趋势。根据分类构建的模型预测,松树病害面积则逐渐扩大,未来病害危害程度未超过森林鼠害的潜在威胁;2030年松树病害与高山鼠兔危害面积将分别达到1808±105 hm^(2)和4249±1445 hm^(2)。【结论】川西林业有害生物当前整体可控,但有逐渐增加趋势,需密切监测松树病害与高山鼠兔危害并采取相应防治措施,建议以基于自然解决方案的生物防治为主进行川西林区生态保护与修复。
【Objective】Scale of forest pests was analyzed annually and their multiply damage ways and degrees were predicted based on classified constructed models,which can provide guidance for forestry monitoring and support for enhancement of forest quality and carbon sequestration.【Method】The monitoring data of forest pests(i.e.diseases,insects and rats)was integrated during the past 15 years(2007 to 2021)in Lixian County of Western Sichuan,China.We analyzed and compared the differentiation of damage scale among forest pests and the annual variations of each pest.Models were developed to fit and predict the annual variations of damaged areas in the recent 15 years and next decade(by 2030,the year of carbon peak)for each pest.【Result】Forest diseases were observed the primary types of forest pests,which accounted for 58.1%to 93.8%of annual total damage areas in the past 15 years,especially the damage areas of pine(Pinus armandii and P.tabuliformis)diseases increased significantly.The damage areas of other diseases had declined recently,for instance spruce(Picea asperata)diseases and cypress(Cupressus chengiana and Platycladus orientalis)diseases.Rat infestation was revealed the second significant factor,specifically,the damage areas of pikas(Ochotona alpina)fluctuated dynamically with growth in recent years.Besides,the damage areas of insects(Leucoptera sp.and Culcula panterinaria)decreased significantly.The damage areas of pine diseases would increase to 1808±105 hm^(2) by 2030,which would be significantly smaller than the potential damage areas of pikas(4249±1445 hm^(2)).【Conclusion】The damage scale of forest pests in Western Sichuan was generally controllable with gradual enlargement.Control measures were inevitable to manage the damages of pine diseases and pikas.Biological control based on natural-based solutions was recommended for ecological conser-vation and restoration in Western Sichuan forests.