文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The copula function-based probability characteristics analysis on seasonal drought and flood combination events on the north China plain

作者：Mu, Wenbin[1,2] Yu, Fuliang[1] Xie, Yuebo[2] Liu, Jia[1] Li, Chuanzhe[1,3] Zhao, Nana[4]

第一作者：Mu, Wenbin

通信作者：Yu, Fuliang

机构：[1] State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, No.1 Fuxing Road Haidian District, Beijing, 100038, China; [2] College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, No.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China; [3] State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, No.8 Donghu South Road, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, China; [4] Institute of Wetland Research, Chinese Academy of Forestry, No.1 Dongxiaofu Road, Beijing, 100091, China

年份：2014

卷号：5

期号：4

起止页码：847-869

外文期刊名：Atmosphere

收录：EI(收录号：20145200382045);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84919711312)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Drought - Food supply - Probability - Springs (components) - Water resources

摘要：Drought and flood events, especially the drought and flood combination events(DFCEs) on the North China Plain (NCP), known as an important grain production region inChina, constitute a serious threat to China's food security. Studies on DFCEs in this regionare of great significance for the rational allocation of water resources and the formulation ofintegrated response strategy for droughts and floods. In this study, L-moments theory andbivariate copula method were used to evaluate the probability characteristics of seasonalDFCEs (continuous drought, continuous flood, and alternation between drought and flood)on the NCP, based on the daily precipitation data (1960-2012) at 19 meteorological stations. Results indicate the following: (1) On the NCP, the precipitation in summer accounts for56.45%-72.02% of mean annual precipitation, and the precipitation in autumn and springcome second. The winter precipitation is the smallest (less than 4%); (2) The best-fit distribution for precipitation anomaly percentages in spring, summer and autumn areGeneralized Normal (GNO), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Pearson III (P-III) insub-region I, respectively. While in sub-region II, they are respectively the P-III, P-III andGeneralized Extreme-Value (GEV); (3) Compared with the Gumbel copula and Claytoncopula, Frank copula is more suitable for spring-summer and summer-autumn precipitationanomaly percentage sequences on the NCP; (4) On the time scale, continuous droughtrespectively dominate in spring-summer DFCEs and in summer-autumn DFCEs on theNCP. Summer-autumn DFCEs prevail in sub-region I with the average probability value0.34, while spring-summer DFCEs dominate in sub-region II, of which average probabilityvalue is 0.42; (5) On the spatial scale, most areas where the probability of continuousdrought in spring-summer and spring drought & summer flood is relatively high are locatedin the northwest, northeast, and coastal parts of sub-region II; all the events with highprobability of continuous drought in summer-autumn and summer flood & autumn droughtoccurred at the central part in the northwest of sub-region II. ? 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.