文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Spatio-temporal variations and multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk in the drylands of the Yellow River Basin

作者：Li, Jing[1] Li, Shuai[2] Wang, Xiaohui[1] Xu, Guangfu[2] Pang, Jiacheng[2]

第一作者：李静

通信作者：Li, S[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry Policy & Informat, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Forestry, Expt Ctr Desert Forestry, Inner Mongolia Dengkou Desert Ecosyst Natl Observa, Dengkou 015200, Peoples R China

年份：2024

卷号：14

期号：1

外文期刊名：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85205447032);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001326080400081)】；

基金：This research was funded by the Basic Scientific Research Service Funds of Central Level Public Welfare Research Institutes, grant number CAFYBB2021ZB003.The authors would like to express their gratitude to EditSprings (https://www.editsprings.cn) for the expert linguistic services provided.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Yellow River Basin; Dryland; Landscape ecological risk; Geographical detector; Multi-scenario simulation; PLUS

摘要：Over the past decades, the drylands of the Yellow River Basin (YRBD) have undergone profound changes in landscape patterns and ecological dynamics, significantly impacting regional sustainable development. To assess the spatio-temporal variations of ecological risk in the YRBD and provide guidance for sustainable regional development, we constructed a coupled Land Use-Landscape Ecological Risk Model-Geographical Detector-PLUS framework for the assessment, analysis, and simulation of dryland landscape ecological risk (LER). The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the area of built-up land, forest, grassland, and water in the YRBD increased, while the area of unused land and cropland decreased. (2) LER exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, dominated by Sub-low and Low risks. High risk areas were primarily located in the western Inner Mongolia Plateau, whereas Low risk areas were prevalent in the Loess Plateau, with an overall decline in risk levels over the 20 years. (3) Water resources, ecological status, and human activities are the main driving factors affecting LER, with the impact of human activities becoming increasingly significant over the past 20 years. (4) Under three development scenarios in 2030, the LER is projected to further decrease, although the impact of these scenarios varies across different research sub-regions. Notably, the Ecological Priority Scenario emerges as more effective in mitigating regional LER. (5) Developing precise land use policies tailored to regional characteristics, continuously implementing ecological restoration projects, strengthening water resource management, and enhancing monitoring capabilities are effective ways to reduce LER in the YRBD. This study systematically quantified the impact of different development scenarios on LER in the YRBD, revealing its spatio-temporal characteristics, and emphasized the importance of planning guidance, ecological restoration, and risk monitoring to align regional development with ecological protection. The findings provide scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development in the YRBD and other drylands, offering valuable insights for global dryland ecological risk management.