文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：An integrated modeling approach for ecological risks assessment under multiple scenarios in Guangzhou, China

作者：Guo, Hongjiang[1,2] Cai, Yanpeng[1,2] Li, Bowen[1,2] Tang, Yijia[3] Qi, Zixuan[1,2] Huang, Yaping[1,2] Yang, Zhifeng[1,2]

第一作者：Guo, Hongjiang

通信作者：Cai, YP[1]

机构：[1]Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm & Ecol Engn, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Water Qual Improvement & Ec, Guangzhou 510006, Peoples R China;[2]Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Guangzhou, Guangzhou 511458, Peoples R China;[3]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Trop Forestry, Guangzhou 510520, Peoples R China

年份：2022

卷号：142

外文期刊名：ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

收录：;EI(收录号：20223312577979);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85136324581);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000868333000003)】；

基金：This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foun- dation of China (U20A20117) , the Key -Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province (2020B1111380003) , and the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0403) . We also much appreciate the anonymous reviewers and the editors for their valuable comments and suggestions.

语种：英文

外文关键词：PLUS -LER coupling model; Land expansion; Multi -scenario simulation; Landscape ecological risk assessment; Guangzhou

摘要：High-intensity human activities have caused dramatic changes in land-use structure in Guangzhou. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and the induced ecological risks. In this research, a framework was developed for landscape ecological risk (LER) prediction based on a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model through incorporating analysis of land expansion strategies, CA model based on multi -type random patch seeds and LER assessment model. The results showed: 1) the urbanization process of Guangzhou was obvious in the past 20 years. Proximity to railways, highways, and secondary roads have the primary impact on the expansion of cultivated land, grassland and construction land, respectively, 2) Guangz-hou's future urban expansion is inevitable based on the PLUS model prediction, 3) during 2000-2020, the overall LER in Guangzhou was at a relatively low level. The higher ecological risk area was mainly distributed in the southern sea area, and 4) from 2020 to 2040, Guangzhou's higher ecological risk areas are on an overall decreasing trend under three scenarios. This research can provide a reference for the planning of regional ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of land resources, as well as LER prediction.