文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：入侵植物飞机草在贵州的适生区预测及风险分析

英文题名：Prediction and Risk Analysis of Suitable Growth Area of Invasive Plant Chromolaena odorata in Guizhou

作者：喻三鹏[1] 田茂娟[2] 张念念[2] 邱建生[1,2] 周倩[3] 班启明[4] 陈又清[5]

第一作者：喻三鹏

机构：[1]贵州大学林学院,贵州贵阳550025;[2]贵州省林业科学研究院,贵州贵阳550005;[3]绥阳县林业局,贵州绥阳563300;[4]望谟县林业局,贵州望谟552300;[5]中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所,云南昆明650000

年份：2021

卷号：50

期号：4

起止页码：125-130

中文期刊名：西部林业科学

外文期刊名：Journal of West China Forestry Science

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；

基金：贵州省高层次创新型人才培养计划“百层次人才”[黔科合平台人才(2016)5669];贵州省林业外来物种调查与研究(KJZXA2018016)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：入侵物种;飞机草;适生区预测;MaxEnt;风险分析

外文关键词：invasive species;Chromolaena odorata;prediction of suitable area;MaxEnt;risk analysis;

分类号：S765

摘要：飞机草于20世纪80年代入侵贵州以来,种群快速蔓延,给贵州的经济、社会及生态造成重大损失。为研究飞机草的扩散规律和风险等级,对其作了适生区预测和风险分析。采用MaxEnt生态位模型,以飞机草分布点的气候和海拔因子作为模型运算的基础数据进行适生区预测,得到飞机草在贵州省的高度、中度、低度适生区和非适生区。采用林业危险性有害生物风险分析指标体系,对飞机草进行定性和定量分析,确定其在贵州的风险等级。结果显示:对预测结果进行准确性分析,表明该模型具有较好的预测效果;飞机草在贵州省的高度、中度适生区分布范围为24.63°~26.72°N、104.35°~109.35°E,面积约26800 km^(2),占全省国土面积的15%;飞机草的风险评估值R=2.32,在贵州属高度危险的林业有害生物。飞机草在贵州的适生区主要是西南部的南亚热带河谷区域,适生区面积大,风险等级高,对区域经济、社会、生态均构成严重威胁。要阻止飞机草在贵州的进一步传播和危害,须加强检疫,在高、中适生区范围开展面上监测,加强对分布区飞机草种群的防控。
Since Chromolaena odorata(L)R.M.King et H.Rob.(Chromolaena odorata)invaded Guizhou in the 1980 s,the population spread rapidly,causing great losses to the economy,society and ecology of Guizhou.In order to study the diffusion law and risk grade of Chromolaena odorata,the suitable area prediction and risk analysis were made.By using the MaxEnt niche model,the climate and elevation factors of C.odorata distribution points were used as the basic data of model calculation to predict the suitable area,and the high,medium,low and unsuitable area of C.odorata in Guizhou Province were obtained.The index system of forestry hazard pest risk analysis was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze C.odorata and confirmed its risk grade in Guizhou.Through the accuracy analysis of the prediction results,it is concluded that the model has a better prediction effect.The distribution range of C.odorata in the high and medium suitable area of Guizhou Province is 24.63°to 26.72°N and 104.35°to 109.35°E,with an area of about 26800 km^(2),accounting for 15%of the total land area of the province.The risk assessment value of Chromolaena odorata is R=2.32,which is a highly dangerous forestry pest in Guizhou.The suitable area of C.odorata in Guizhou is mainly the south subtropical valley in the southwest,which has a large area and high risk grade,which poses a serious threat to the regional economy,society and ecology.In order to prevent the further spread and harm of Chromolaena odorata in Guizhou,it is necessary to strengthen quarantine,carry out surface monitoring in high and medium suitable areas,and strengthen the prevention and control of grass population in the distribution area.