文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：青海湖主要入湖河流57年径流变化及其对气候变化的响应

英文题名：Annual Runoff Changes and Their Responses to Climate Change of Main Rivers into Qinghai Lake in The Recent 57 Years

作者：方健梅[1] 张家琦[1] 王贺年[2] 余新晓[3] 周金星[3]

第一作者：方健梅

机构：[1]国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院,北京100714;[2]中国林业科学研究院湿地研究所,北京100091;[3]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083

年份：2022

卷号：51

期号：4

起止页码：19-25

中文期刊名：西部林业科学

外文期刊名：Journal of West China Forestry Science

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；

基金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项“湿地景观生态规划关键技术研究”(201404308)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：径流;非线性变化趋势;气候变化;青海湖入湖河流

外文关键词：runoff;the trend of nonlinear change;climate change;the river into Qinghai Lake

分类号：P333;P467

摘要：水文时间序列的非线性和线性研究,对于揭示水文过程的变化规律及其复杂性具有非常重要的作用。基于布哈河流域和沙柳河流域气象站、雨量站和水文站1960—2016年的观测数据,运用灰色关联分析、小波分析和回归分析相结合的方法,对57 a间两河川流域年径流和气候因子进行多尺度分析,探讨多时间尺度下年径流的非线性及周期性变化特征,完成气候因子对年径流的重要性排序,分析年降水与年径流的线性回归关系。结果显示:(1)年径流与年降水的第一(主要)变化周期一致,均存在27~28 a的第一主周期,但第二及以上周期存在较大差异;(2)年径流量与气候因子关系密切,根据气候因子对年径流的重要性排序结果显示,气温因子与年径流的关联度低于降水因子,布哈河气温对年径流的敏感性略低于沙柳河;(3)两流域年径流差异显著,其地形条件、汇流时间及气候差异等都是造成径流异质性的原因;(4)从径流与气候因子的非线性分析来看,年径流的非线性变化趋势具有很强的时间周期依赖性,尺度越大,径流与降水的关联性越显著;(5)从径流与气候因子的线性分析来看,随着尺度的增大,布哈河年降水对年径流的贡献率是降低的,而沙柳河则是递增的。
The nonlinear and linear study of hydrological time series plays a greatly important role in revealing the change law and complexity of hydrological process.Based on the observation data of weather stations,rain measuring station and hydrologic stations in the basin of Buha River and Shalu River from 1960 to 2016,a multi-scale analysis of annual runoff and climate factors in the two river basins was conducted by using the method of grey correlation analysis,wavelet analysis and regression analysis.In this paper,we discussed the characteristics of nonlinear and periodic changes of annual runoff in multi-time scale,and ranked the importance of climate factors to annual runoff,and analyzed the linear regression relationship between annual precipitation and annual runoff.The results show that:(1)The first(main)change cycle of annual runoff is consistent with that of annual precipitation,both of which have the first main cycle in 27-28 years,but the second and above cycles are quite different.(2)The annual runoff is closely related to climate factors,according to the results of ranking the importance of climate factors to annual runoff,the correlation degrees between temperature factors and annual runoff were lower than those of precipitation factors,and the sensitivity of temperature of Buha River to annual runoff was slightly lower than that of Shalu River.(3)The heterogeneity of runoff between two rivers is caused by the difference of topographic condition,confluence time and climate.(4)From the nonlinear analysis of runoff and climate factors,the nonlinear variation trend of annual runoff is strongly time-period dependent.The larger the scale,the more significant the correlation between runoff and precipitation.(5)From the linear analysis of runoff and climate factors,with the increase of scale,the contribution rate of annual precipitation to annual runoff in Buha River decreased,while that in Shaliu River increased.