文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于广义线性混合效应模型的蒙古栎林单木枯损建模及影响因子分析

英文题名：Modeling of Individual Tree Mortality and Analysis of Influence Factor in Mongolian Oak Stand Based on Generalized Linear Mixed Effect Model

作者：李春明[1,2]

第一作者：李春明

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091;[2]国家林业和草原局森林经营与生长模拟重点实验室,北京100091

年份：2020

卷号：33

期号：6

起止页码：105-113

中文期刊名：林业科学研究

外文期刊名：Forest Research

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSCD:【CSCD2019_2020】；

基金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于混合效应模型的联立方程组及概率分布模型在模拟森林生长中的方法研究”(31570625)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：广义线性混合效应模型;单木;枯损;蒙古栎;logistic模型

外文关键词：generalized linear mixed effect model;tree;mortality;Quercus mongolica;logistic model

分类号：S757.2

摘要：[目的]通过基于广义线性混合效应模型的方法,建立枯损模型,提高枯损模拟和预测精度。[方法]以1995年在吉林省布设的295块蒙古栎永久样地作为研究对象,基于logistic回归及广义线性混合效应模型方法,考虑单木、林分、气象及立地等因子对枯损的影响,构建单木水平枯损模型。并与传统广义线性模型方法进行比较,采用验证数据进行精度验证。[结果]表明:与固定效应模型相比,考虑样地水平随机效应后,模型的模拟精度获得极大的提高,并且达到极显著程度;在截距和胸径变量上考虑随机效应的模型模拟精度最高;对单木枯损有重要影响的因子中,林分公顷断面积、林分平均年龄及年平均夏季(5—9月)降水量(MSP)与单木枯损概率呈负相关,大于对象木断面积、林分公顷株数、气象因子中的年平均温度(MAT)及上一年8月至当年7月的降雪量(PAS)与单木枯损概率呈正相关,初始单木胸径对枯损的影响比较复杂,要和其他因子结合起来分析。[结论]甄别影响单木枯损的不同来源及重要影响因素,有助于进一步制定科学的森林经营措施。
[Objective]To establish a mortality model so based on the generalized linear mixed effect model so as to improve the precision of simulation and prediction.[Method]On 295 permanent plots established in 1995 at Mongolian oak(Quercus mongolica)natural forest in Jilin province,the individual tree-level mortality model was established taking the effects of stand characteristics,climate,and site type variables into consideration based on logistic regression and generalized linear mixed effect model.The fit of model was compared with conventional generalized linear model method,and validation data was used to verify the accuracy of model.[Result]The results showed that the good-fitness of the model was greatly improved after considering plot’s random effect compared with the fixed effect model.When considering random effects of intercept and diameter variables,the fitness was the best.The stand basal area,stand age,and mean annual precipitation in summer(May to September)were negatively correlated with mortality.The basal area in larger trees,the stand density,the mean annual temperature,and the precipitation in the form of snow between August in previous year and July in current year were positively correlated with the mortality.The effect of the initial tree diameter on the mortality was complicated,so it is needed to analyze combined with other factors.[Conclusion]Identifying the sources of variation and influence factor in tree mortality will help further adopt suitable forest management measures.