文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Prediction of Suitable Habitats for Sapindus delavayi Based on the MaxEnt Model

作者：Li, Yongxiang[1] Shao, Wenhao[1] Huang, Shiqing[2] Zhang, Yongzhi[2] Fang, Hongfeng[2] Jiang, Jingmin[1]

通信作者：Shao, WH[1]|[a0005cd50a9e740d69349]邵文豪;

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Subtrop Forestry, Hangzhou 311400, Peoples R China;[2]AnJi Longshan Forest Farm, Huzhou 313306, Peoples R China

年份：2022

卷号：13

期号：10

外文期刊名：FORESTS

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000875295600001)】；

基金：This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Program of China (grant number 2019FY100803_02) and the Zhejiang Science and Technology Major Program on Agricultural New Variety Breeding (grant number 2021C02070-3).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Sapindus delavayi; MaxEnt; climate change; suitable habitat; environmental factors

摘要：Sapindus delavayi (Franch.) Radlk. (S. delavayi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species with a peel rich in saponins and a kernel high in oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats for S. delavayi in China, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution, and analyze the changes in its suitable habitats under future climate change. The results provide a scientific basis for its introduction, cultivation, and germplasm resource collection and protection. Twenty-two environmental variables and China distribution data for S. delavayi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the model's accuracy. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, then a geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to determine the level of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect for which the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.959. The annual precipitation (Bio18), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. delavayi. Under the current climate, the suitable area for S. delavayi is 1,321,308.07 km(2), and under the four climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s, the suitable area is predicted to change by -3.97%similar to 2.57%. Overall, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats will shift by different degrees to the southwest in the future.