文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Forest carbon storage and sink estimates under different management scenarios in China from 2020 to 2100

作者：Qin, Jianghuan[1,2] Liu, Pengju[1,2] Martin, Adam R.[1,3] Wang, Weifeng[2,4] Lei, Yuancai[1,2] Li, Haikui[1,2]

第一作者：Qin, Jianghuan

通信作者：Li, HK[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Forest Resource Informat Tech, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]State Forestry & Grassland Adm, Key Lab Forest Management & Growth Modelling, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Univ Toronto Scarborough, Dept Phys & Environm Sci, Scarborough, ON, Canada;[4]Nanjing Forestry Univ, Coll Biol & Environm, Nanjing, Peoples R China

年份：2024

卷号：927

外文期刊名：SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

收录：;EI(收录号：20241515876206);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85189675920);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001225306200001)】；

基金：The authors thank the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFD2200404) and Fundamental Research Funds of CAF (CAFYBB2023MA014) for funding this work. We would like to thank Lu Yang for providing software help.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Chinese forests; Carbon sequestration; Carbon stocks; Forest management; Afforestation

摘要：Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change through carbon storage and sequestration, though environmental change drivers and management scenarios are likely to influence these contributions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we employed three tree growth models - the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models - that account for the biological characteristics of trees, alongside national forest inventory (NFI) datasets from 1994 to 2018, to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforested regions in China from 2020 to 2100, assuming multiple afforestation and forest management scenarios. Our results indicate that the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models provided a good fit for 26 types of vegetation biomass in both natural and planted Chinese forests. These models estimate that in 2020, carbon stocks in existing Chinese forests are 7.62 +/- 0.05 Pg C, equivalent to an average of 44.32 +/- 0.32 Mg C/ ha. Our predictions then indicate this total forest carbon stock is expected to increase to 15.51 +/- 0.99 Pg C (or 72.26 +/- 4.6 Mg C/ha) in 2060, and further to 19.59 +/- 1.36 Pg C (or 91.31 +/- 6.33 Mg C/ha) in 2100. We also show that plantation management measures, namely tree species replacement, would increase carbon sinks to 0.09 Pg C/ year (contributing 38.9 %) in 2030 and 0.06 Pg C/ year (contributing 32.4 %) in 2060. Afforestation using tree species with strong carbon sink capacity in existing plantations would further significantly increase carbon sinks from 0.02 Pg C/year (contributing 10.3 %) in 2030 to 0.06 Pg C/year (contributing 28.2 %) in 2060. Our results quantify the role plantation management plays in providing a strong increase in forest carbon sequestration at national scales, pointing to afforestation with native tree species with high carbon sequestration as key in achieving China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.