文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Gridded forest carbon sinks and carbon removal projections from 2020 to 2060 in China

作者：Jia, Min[1] Ye, Shu[2,3,4] Zhang, Li[5] Wu, Pengcheng[6] Huang, Ni[7] Bai, Yanfeng[8] Ruan, Jianhui[9] He, Zhuoming[10] Li, Mingyu[11] Chen, Shaoyuan[12] Wang, Li[7] Cai, Bofeng[13] Wang, Jinnan[13]

第一作者：Jia, Min

通信作者：Zhang, L[1];Li, MY[2];Cai, BF[3]

机构：[1]North China Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100144, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Vegetat Restorat & Management Degraded Eco, South China Bot Garden, Guangzhou 510650, Peoples R China;[3]South China Natl Bot Garden, Guangzhou 510650, Peoples R China;[4]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;[5]Jiangsu Univ, Sch Environm & Safety Engn, Zhenjiang 212013, Peoples R China;[6]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510080, Peoples R China;[7]Chinese Acad Sci, Aerosp Informat Res Inst, State Key Lab Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China;[8]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China;[9]China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China;[10]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China;[11]Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;[12]Peking Univ, Ino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China;[13]Chinese Acad Environm Planning, Ctr Carbon Neutral, Beijing 100043, Peoples R China

年份：2025

卷号：392

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

收录：;EI(收录号：20253018832049);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105011211788);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001538511700003)】；

基金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72140004 and 72074154) , the Chinese Academy of Engineering (Grant No. 2022-PP-01) , and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFC3807700) .

语种：英文

外文关键词：Forest carbon sinks; CO2 emissions; Emission pathway; Offset effect; Carbon neutrality

摘要：Clarifying the forest carbon sink in the future and detailing its offsetting effect on CO2 emissions are of great significance to China's Dual-Carbon strategy. This study has innovatively developed a comprehensive analysis to simultaneously consider grid-specific (10 km x 10 km), yearly, and nationwide forest carbon sink and CO2 emissions to further explore the carbon offset effects of China's forest resources from 2020 to 2060 under scenario combinations integrated by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We find that China is projected to achieve carbon peaks around 2025, 2030, and 2040 and China's forest carbon sink is anticipated to peak around 2025 under their associated scenarios. Especially, there are vast heterogeneities in forest carbon sink and CO2 emissions across provinces from 2020 to 2060. For instance, Shandong is one of the main CO2 emission contributors whereas Yunnan contributes to a large proportion of forest carbon sinks. Furthermore, the offsetting ratio of forest carbon sinks to CO2 emissions exhibits an optimistic overall growth trend, ranging from 4.43 % to 62.87 % between 2020 and 2060. Nevertheless, regional uneven distribution features between the CO2 emissions and forest carbon sinks pose higher requirements for implementing efficient emission reduction measures in high-emission regions. Our results emphasize the effectiveness of forest carbon sinks on CO2 emission offsets and the necessity of spatial differentiation policies, thereby facilitating future policymaking.