文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Development of a Climate-Sensitive Matrix Growth Model for Larix gmelinii Mixed-Species Natural Forests and Its Application for Predicting Forest Dynamics under Different Climate Scenarios

作者：Zhang, Liang[1,2] He, Youjun[1] Wang, Jianjun[1] Meng, Jinghui[3]

第一作者：Zhang, Liang

机构：[1] Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; [2] China Inner Mongolia Forest Industry Group, Hulun Buir, 022150, China; [3] Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China

年份：2022

卷号：13

期号：4

外文期刊名：Forests

收录：EI(收录号：20221712031753);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85128765377)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Climate models - Ecology - Deforestation - Frequency modulation - Decision making - Disasters - Forecasting

摘要：Larix gmelini natural forests, which are of great ecological and economic importance, are mainly distributed in northeast China. Sustainable management of these forests play a vital role in ecological security in northeast China, especially in the context of climate change. Forest growth models, which support forest management decision-making, are lacking for Larix gmelini natural forests, hampering the prescription of forest management strategies. In this study, we produced a climate-sensitive, transition-matrix model (CM) for Larix gmelini natural forests. For comparison, a variable transition model without including climate change effects (NCM) and a fixed-parameter model (FM) were also built. We examined the performance of the CM, NCM, and FM by conducting short-(5 years) and long-term (100 years) simulations. The results showed that for short-term prediction, no significant difference was observed among the three predictive models. However, the long-term prediction ability of the CM under the three different RCPs was superior to that of the FM and NCM. The number of trees and basal area were predicted to increase under climate change, which might result in natural disasters, such as snow break, windthrow, and forest fire. Silvicultural practices, such as reducing the intermediate thinning interval and the enrichment planting of slowgrowing trees, should be implemented to mitigate the deleterious effects of climate change. ? 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.