文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国加强进口木材合法性管理的经济影响分析——基于静态GTAP模型

英文题名：Economic Impact Analysis on China Strengthening Wood Imports Legality Administration: Based on Static GTAP Model

作者：张朝[1] 李静[1] 徐斌[1] 陈洁[1] 万宇轩[1]

第一作者：张朝

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091

年份：2021

卷号：34

期号：1

起止页码：65-69

中文期刊名：世界林业研究

外文期刊名：World Forestry Research

收录：北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务费专项“中国木材合法性贸易法规框架构建研究”(CAFYBB2018MC007)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：合法木材贸易;政策;GTAP模型;经济影响;中国

外文关键词：legal timber trade;policy;GTAP model;economic impact;China

分类号：F326.2;F746.22

摘要：非法采伐及相关贸易被认为是导致毁林和全球气候变暖的主要原因之一,对全世界的经济、社会和环境带来了负面影响。中国是全球第1大林产品贸易国,进口木材已占我国木材来源的50%以上,而其中很多来自非伐采伐风险比较高的热带国家/地区,倍受国际舆论压力。在此背景下,中国政府正在不断完善相关法规政策以加强对进口木材合法性的管理。文中采用静态GTAP模型模拟了出台进口材合法性管理政策法规背景下企业选取不同合规机制对中国和全球林产品贸易的影响。结果表明,中国加强进口材合法性的管理将改变中国木材进口格局,其产生的主要福利损失由中国和被判定为非法采伐高风险的国家/地区承担,而低风险国家/地区则实现了福利增加。
Illegal logging and related trade is considered to be one of the main drivers of deforestation and global warming, with its negative impacts on the world economy, society andenvironment. China is the world’s largest country in forest products trade, more than 50% of which are imported. As some imports come from tropical countries with relatively high risk of illegal logging, China has been under great pressure and criticism from international society. The Chinese government is therefore updating and improving related policies and regulations to strengthen the administration of the wood imports. This paper uses the static GTAP model to estimate the impact of the different legality assurance mechanisms that Chinese enterprises could adopt to meet legal requirements on forest products trade in China and in the world. The results show that China strengthening the control over wood imports will change the pattern of timber imports. The major welfare losses will be borne by China and high-risk producing countries, while low-risk countries will have increased welfare accordingly.