文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda

作者：Tian, Zhaoxue[1] Liu, Xuehua[1] Fan, Zhiyong[2] Liu, Jianguo[3] Pimm, Stuart L.[4] Liu, Lanmei[1] Garcia, Claude[5,6] Songer, Melissa[7] Shao, Xiaoming[8] Skidmore, Andrew[9,10] Wang, Tiejun[9] Zhang, Yuke[1] Chang, Youde[2] Jin, Xuelin[11] Gong, Minghao[12] Zhou, Lingguo[13] He, Xiangbo[14] Dang, Gaodi[14] Zhu, Yun[15] Cai, Qiong[15]

第一作者：Tian, Zhaoxue

通信作者：Liu, XH[1]

机构：[1]Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;[2]WWF Beijing Off, 22 Baiwangzhuang St, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China;[3]Michigan State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, Ctr Syst Integrat & Sustainabil, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA;[4]Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Box 90328, Durham, NC 27708 USA;[5]ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, ForDev Grp, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;[6]CIRAD, Res Unit Forests & Soc, F-34392 Montpellier, France;[7]Smithsonian Conservat Biol Inst, Conservat Ecol Ctr, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA;[8]China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing Key Lab Biodivers & Organ Farming, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China;[9]Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands;[10]Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia;[11]Chinese Acad Sci, Shaanxi Inst Zool, 88 Xingqing St, Xian 710032, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[12]Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Wetland Res, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China;[13]Dept Shaanxi Forest Adm, Wildlife Protect Stn, 233 Xiguanzheng St, Xian 710082, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[14]Foping Nat Reserve, Xian 723400, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[15]Guanyinshan Nat Reserve, Xian 723400, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

年份：2019

卷号：234

起止页码：180-187

外文期刊名：BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85063537923);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000468718500021)】；

基金：We express our great thanks to the support from two funding sources: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC projects: No. 41271194 and No. 41671183), the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF project: No. 10002980) and to Yanzhong Li, Mao Chen and Xiaolei Li for their previous working on GIS analysis.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Scenario analysis; Massive bamboo flowering; Risk pattern; Giant panda; Qinling Mountains; Minshan Mountains

摘要：The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from "endangered" to "vulnerable" that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.