文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Maxent modeling for predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Thuja sutchuenensis Franch., an extremely endangered conifer from southwestern China

作者：Qin, Aili[1,3] Liu, Bo[2,3] Guo, Quanshui[1] Bussmann, Rainer W.[4] Ma, Fanqiang[1] Jian, Zunji[5] Xu, Gexi[5] Pei, Shunxiang[5]

第一作者：Qin, Aili

通信作者：Guo, QS[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry Ecol Environm & Protect, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]Minzu Univ China, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing, Peoples R China;[4]Missouri Bot Garden, William L Brown Ctr, St Louis, MO USA;[5]Chinese Acad Forestry, Expt Ctr Forestry North China, Beijing, Peoples R China

年份：2017

卷号：10

起止页码：139-146

外文期刊名：GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000413278400013)】；

基金：The authors are grateful to Prof. Xiaoquan Wang and Prof. Guangsheng Zhou for their valuable suggestions and comments on the manuscript. We also thank members of Dabashan and Xuebaoshan National Nature Reserves sincerely for their help in the field investigation. We are also grateful of colleagues at the Minzu University of China and Missouri Botanical Garden for their helpful comments and discussions. This work was financially supported by the Special fund for basic scientific research business of central public research institutes, Grant No. CAFYBB2014QB031 & CAFRIFEEP2015B07, National Natural Science Foundation of China (31400474, 31400182), and Youth Academic Leadership Program in Minzu University of China (2017MDYL32).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Thuja sutchuenensis; Maxent; Jackknife; Climate change; Species distribution modeling

摘要：Objectives Detailed and reliable information about the spatial distribution of species provides important information for species conservation management, especially in the case of rare species of conservation interest. We aimed to study the consequences of climate change on geographical distributions of the tertiary rare tree species Thuja sutchuenensis Franch. (Cupressaceae) to provide reference for conservation management of this species, including priority area selection for introduction and cultivation of the species. We expect that this approach could be promising in predicting the potential distribution of other rare tree species, and as such can be an effective tool in rare tree species restoration and conservation planning, especially species with narrow distribution or raw presence-only occurrence data. Methods 107 records covering the whole distribution range of T. sutchuenensis in the Daba Mountains were obtained during a 3-year field survey. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climate background. Results The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value of 0.998, which is higher than 0.5 of a null model; The location of the potential distribution for the last interglacial period is in southeastern China, with the largest optimal habitat area being only 1666 km(2). In other periods, the central location of the potential distribution is accordant with the real present distribution, but the model's predicted optimal habitat area is outside the current distribution. Conclusions Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where T. sutchuenensis may already exist, but has not yet been detected; the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to; the priority selection area for introduction and cultivation and the conservation management of such rare tree species. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.