文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of carbon stocks in the Yangtze River Basin of China over the past 20 years

作者：An, Xuexian[1,2,3] Zhang, Meng[1,2,3] Zhang, Huaiqing[4] Liu, Yang[4]

第一作者：An, Xuexian

通信作者：Zhang, M[1]

机构：[1]Cent South Univ Forestry & Technol, Res Ctr Forestry Remote Sensing & Informat Engn, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China;[2]Key Lab State Forestry Adm Forest Resources Manage, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China;[3]Key Lab Forestry Remote Sensing Based Big Data & E, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China;[4]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forest Resources Informat Tech, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China

年份：2025

卷号：75

期号：1

起止页码：53-73

外文期刊名：ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH

收录：;EI(收录号：20243016765444);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85199459196);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001392994000001)】；

基金：This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41901385) , the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China (2022JJ40873) , in part by the Education Department of Hunan Province of China (21A0177) , supported by Scientific Innovation Fund for Post-graduates of Central South University of Forestry and Technology.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Carbon stocks; Spatiotemporal change; Data assimilation; InVEST model; Yangtze River basin

摘要：The Yangtze River Basin is one of the main wetland ecosystems, playing an indispensable role in the ecological balance and carbon balance of the basin. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon stocks in the Yangtze River basin and identifying their driving mechanisms is crucial for promoting ecological conservation. In this study, carbon stocks in the Yangtze River Basin were estimated from 2000 to 2020 based on land use/cover (LULC) maps. On this basis, the driving mechanisms of carbon stock changes were discussed in relation to natural and socio-economic factors. After analyzing the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon stock distribution, scenario-based land-use simulation was conducted based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model and combined with historical LULC data, and the dynamic change patterns of future carbon stocks were estimated. The results indicated that with the continuous optimization of conservation measures, the carbon stocks in the Yangtze River basin exhibited a fluctuating trend of "decrease-increase" between 2000 and 2020. From 2000 to 2015, the rate of decrease was 0.6 %, while from 2015 to 2020, carbon stocks showed an increasing trend with an increase of 0.05 %. The carbon stocks distribution had obvious spatial heterogeneity. We identified four direct pathways that affect the distribution of carbon stocks, with climate change and topographic conditions exerting a significant and predominantly positive influence on carbon stocks distribution, while socioeconomic and soil conditions had a negative impact. Notably, we observed that the influence of climate conditions on the distribution of carbon stocks gradually decreased over time. The simulated Kappa coefficient of this study based on EnKF with PLUS model was higher than 0.82 and Fom value was 0.2. The carbon stocks simulation results indicated that under the ecological conservation scenario, there was a continuous increase in carbon stocks of 71.812 x 106 Mg, with most of the distribution being in forests, croplands, and grasslands. The associated increase for the natural development scenario was 1092.265 x 106 Mg. These results provide new and theoretical support for ecological protection in the Yangtze River basin. (c) 2024 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.