文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The Copula Function-Based Probability Characteristics Analysis on Seasonal Drought & Flood Combination Events on the North China Plain

作者：Mu, Wenbin[1,2] Yu, Fuliang[1] Xie, Yuebo[2] Liu, Jia[1] Li, Chuanzhe[1,3] Zhao, Nana[4]

第一作者：Mu, Wenbin

通信作者：Yu, FL[1]

机构：[1]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China;[2]Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;[3]Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China;[4]Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Wetland Res, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China

年份：2014

卷号：5

期号：4

起止页码：847-869

外文期刊名：ATMOSPHERE

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000346800300009)】；

基金：This study was supported by the Foundation of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (1232), the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (Grant No. 2013DFG70990), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51209225 and 51409270), the Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science (2012B093) and the Science and Technology Foundation for Selected Overseas Chinese Scholars, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of China.

语种：英文

外文关键词：L-moments; the copula function; DFCEs; precipitation data; probability; the NCP

摘要：Drought & flood events, especially the drought & flood combination events (DFCEs) on the North China Plain (NCP), known as an important grain production region in China, constitute a serious threat to China's food security. Studies on DFCEs in this region are of great significance for the rational allocation of water resources and the formulation of integrated response strategy for droughts and floods. In this study, L-moments theory and bivariate copula method were used to evaluate the probability characteristics of seasonal DFCEs (continuous drought, continuous flood, and alternation between drought and flood) on the NCP, based on the daily precipitation data (1960-2012) at 19 meteorological stations. Results indicate the following: (1) On the NCP, the precipitation in summer accounts for 56.45%-72.02% of mean annual precipitation, and the precipitation in autumn and spring come second. The winter precipitation is the smallest (less than 4%); (2) The best-fit distribution for precipitation anomaly percentages in spring, summer and autumn are Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Pearson III (P-III) in sub-region I, respectively. While in sub-region II, they are respectively the P-III, P-III and Generalized Extreme-Value (GEV); (3) Compared with the Gumbel copula and Clayton copula, Frank copula is more suitable for spring-summer and summer-autumn precipitation anomaly percentage sequences on the NCP; (4) On the time scale, continuous drought respectively dominate in spring-summer DFCEs and in summer-autumn DFCEs on the NCP. Summer-autumn DFCEs prevail in sub-region I with the average probability value 0.34, while spring-summer DFCEs dominate in sub-region II, of which average probability value is 0.42; (5) On the spatial scale, most areas where the probability of continuous drought in spring-summer and spring drought & summer flood is relatively high are located in the northwest, northeast, and coastal parts of sub-region II; all the events with high probability of continuous drought in summer-autumn and summer flood & autumn drought occurred at the central part in the northwest of sub-region II.