文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于Logistic回归模型的北京市耕地变化驱动力分析

英文题名：Driving Forces of Arable Land Change in Beijing Based on Logistic Regression Model

作者：姜楠[1,2,3] 贾宝全[1,2,3] 宋宜昊[1,2,3]

第一作者：姜楠

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所;[2]国家林业局林木培育重点实验室;[3]国家林业局城市林业研究中心

年份：2017

卷号：34

期号：6

起止页码：1402-1409

中文期刊名：干旱区研究

外文期刊名：Arid Zone Research

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2014】；CSCD:【CSCD2017_2018】；

基金：林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目"美丽城镇森林景观的构建技术研究与示范"(201404301);北京市自然科学基金(8152031)资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：土地利用变化;耕地;Logistic回归模型;驱动力;北京

外文关键词：land use change; arable land; Logistic regression model; driving factor; Beijing

分类号：TU311.3

摘要：基于北京市2000、2010年LUCC图件,借助GIS及SPSS软件,选取自然地理因素、社会经济因素及综合因素为自变量,运用定性分析和多分类Logistic回归模型,探讨了北京市耕地变化的宏观原因及空间变化的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)北京市耕地变化是土地利用的核心问题,是宏观需求和空间因素共同作用的结果。(2)人口增长、经济发展、山区绿化、水库蓄水量下降及城市规划等因素是影响北京市耕地变化方向和趋势的宏观因素,而耕地空间变化则在人类活动的主导下,受到高程、侵蚀强度、距农村居民点距离、邻域内耕地数量等因素的共同作用。(3)总体看来,北京市的耕地变化是朝着良性的方向发展的。
Based on the land use/cover maps in 2000 and 2010,the characteristics of spatial change and its driving factors about Beijing＇s arable land transition were studied with the help of GIS and SPSS. During the process,the spatial change of arable land,as the dependent variable,and other 20 explanatory variables chosen from natural factors,socio-economic factors and integrated factors were analyzed by the multinomial Logistic regression model. The results were as follows：（1） The change of arable land,the key problem in Beijing,was impacted by general needs and spatial factors together.（2） Population growth,economic development,forestation,reservoir water volume and urban planning were the macro factors that influenced the direction of arable land change in Beijing.（3） While elevation,erosion intensity,distance to rural settlements,and the number of arable land in the neighborhood determined the spatial change of arable land together.（4） Specifically,among natural factors,with higher elevation,steeper slopes,higher intensity erosion and more undulating terrain,the arable land was more easily transformed to grass and forest land,and construction land was more easily converted to arable land. While the opposite transformation of arable land was harder. It means that the arable land in Beijing was changing in an environmentally friendly way.（5） Among socio-economic factors,with shorter distance to the center of the counties and rural settlements,greater road network density,faster speed of population density growth,the arable land was more easily transformed to construction land. Grass and forest land were more easily changed to arable land. While the opposite transformation of arable land was harder. It meant that with easier human accessibility to,the land use types were more likely to shift towards the ones which represent higher levels of human disturbance.（6） Among integrated factors,the amount of arable land and construction land in the neighborhood were the major driving factors. Grass land,forest land and construction land were more easily transformed to arable land with more arable land in the neighborhood. With more construction land in the neighborhood,arable land was more easily transformed to construction land. It meant that both of arable land and construction land tend to expand.（7） Overall,arable land in Beijing was changing towards a better direction.