文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：长柄扁桃适宜分布区对气候变化的响应

英文题名：Response of the suitable distribution areas of Prunus pedunculata to Climate Change

作者：张君明[1,2] 边磊[3] 周飞梅[3] 王兴梅[1] 杨涛[4,5] 张生平[3] 王伟[2] 宋敏丽[1] 许新桥[2]

第一作者：张君明

机构：[1]太原师范学院生物系,山西晋中030619;[2]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,北京100091;[3]榆阳区林草生态修复中心,陕西榆林719000;[4]陕西省林业科学院,陕西西安710082;[5]国家林业和草原局长柄扁桃工程技术研究中心,陕西榆林719000

年份：2022

卷号：35

期号：5

起止页码：180-187

中文期刊名：林业科学研究

外文期刊名：Forest Research

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：国家自然基金面上项目(32170392);榆阳区林业局推广项目(202106)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：长柄扁桃;适宜分布;气候变化;几何中心

外文关键词：Prunus pedunculata;suitable distribution area;climate change;geometric center

分类号：S565

摘要：[目的]揭示新型生态经济树种长柄扁桃集中适宜分布区对未来气候变化的响应。[方法]结合实地调查地理数据,利用MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件预测长柄扁桃在未来气候情景下集中适宜分布区的变化。[结果]长柄扁桃适宜分布区集中在中国、蒙古和俄罗斯,分布范围为97.23°~122.62°E和35.49°~54.91°N。基准气候(1970—2000)情景下,中、高适宜分布区主要位于中国境内。降水季节性变化(bio15)是预测过程中得分最高的气候变量。在4种未来(2021—2100)气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下,长柄扁桃适宜分布区的几何中心整体表现出向西北方移动的趋势。随着排放情景的升级,各气候情景中几何中心的平均迁移率也在增加。[结论]降水季节性变化(bio15)是限制长柄扁桃分布的最关键变量。长柄扁桃集中适宜分布区有向西北方迁移的趋势。高排放情景下适宜分布区的变化比低排放情景更为活跃。
[Objective]To reveal the response of suitable distribution of Prunus pedunculata to climate change.[Method]Based on the field investigation,MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict the change of suitable distribution area of Prunus pedunculata in the future climate scenario.[Results]The suitable distribution region of Prunus pedunculata was mainly concentrated in China,Mongolia and Russia,and the distribution area located in 97.23°-122.62°E and 35.49°-54.91°N.Under the reference climate(1970-2000)scenario,the medium and high suitable distribution area are mainly located in China.Seasonality Precipitation(bio15,Coefficient of Variation)was the climate variable with the highest score in the prediction process.Under the four future(2021-2100)climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0and SSP5-8.5),the geometric center of the suitable distribution area would move to the northwest.In the scenario of increased emissions,the average migration rate of geometric centers increased.[Conclusion]Seasonality Precipitation(bio15)is the most critical variable to limit the distribution of Prunus pedunculata.The suitable distribution area of Prunus pedunculata trends to migrate to the northwest.Under the high emission scenario,the change of the suitable distribution region is more active than the low emission scenario.