文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：我国林下经济政策分析与量化评价

英文题名：Analysis and quantitative evaluation of under-forest economy policies in China

作者：段佳龙[1] 徐梓浩[2] 李剑泉[1] 詹雷[2] 陆书童[1]

第一作者：段佳龙

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091;[2]广西大学农学院,南宁530004

年份：2024

卷号：46

期号：7

起止页码：23-41

中文期刊名：林业经济

外文期刊名：Forestry Economics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CAFYBB2023MC003);国家林业和草原局软科学项目“林下经济政策汇编与分析”(20245001021770)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：政策建模一致性指数;林下经济政策;主题挖掘;量化分析

外文关键词：policy modeling consistency index;under-forest economy policies;theme mining;quantitative analysis

分类号：F323

摘要：开展林下经济政策研究,对于推动林草产业和生态经济高质量发展意义重大。文章通过筛选并处理2012—2023年颁布的共47项现行林下经济规划类长政策文本,利用Python软件使用隐含分布主题模型,构建林业经济政策分析框架并进行评价,根据困惑度以及可视化结果,确定了3个最佳主题,并总结各主题下林下经济政策中出现频率前30的高频词,确定了9个一级指标和36个二级指标。通过选取具有代表性的6项林下经济政策样本构建PMC模型、测算PMC指数和绘制PMC曲面,分析各项政策的优劣势。研究结果发现:从总体来看,林下经济政策样本的PMC指数平均值为6.75,平均等级为良好,其中1项政策为优秀等级,4项为良好等级,1项为可接受等级,无不良等级,总体具备一定的科学性与合理性;从各项指标平均值来看,政策时效、政策发布主体得分均低于0.60,是改进的主要方向,政策性质、政策评价、政策重点、政策受体得分均超过0.70,具有明显优势。文章聚焦政策的量化评价更加科学、客观,有助于从政策内容角度为林下经济的高质量发展提供优化参考。评价结果表明,我国林下经济政策整体设计较为合理,但林下经济政策应建立长短期结合的林下经济发展规划、探索多样化的林下经济模式促进政策、明确林下经济政策支持重点。
Research on under-forest economy policies is of significant importance for promoting the high-quality development of the forest and grass industries as well as the ecological economy.This paper screened and processed 47 existing long policy texts in the category of under-forest economy planning enacted between 2012 and 2023,constructed a policy analysis framework by using Python and Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA)topic model to identify three best themes based on perplexity and visualization results,summarized the top 30 high-frequent words with the highest frequency of occurrence in under-forest policies within each theme,and identified 9 first-level indicators and 36 second-level indicators.Six representative under-forest economy policies were selected to construct Policy Modeling Consistency(PMC)models,calculate PMC indices,and generate PMC surfaces to evaluate each policy's strengths and weaknesses.The results showed that:In general,the average PMC index for the sampled under-forest policies was 6.75,with an average grade of good,of which one policy was rated as excellent grade,four were rated as good grade,one was rated as acceptable grade,and there were no bad grades,which generally had a certain degree of scientific validity and rationality.In terms of the average value of each indicator,the scores of policy timeliness and policy issuing bodies were all lower than 0.60,which were the main key areas for improvement,while the scores of policy nature,policy evaluation,policy focus,and policy receptor were all more than 0.70,which had obvious advantages.The paper focused on the quantitative evaluation of policies,making it more scientific and objective,which could provide optimization references from a policy content perspective to support the high-quality development of the under-forest economy.The evaluation results revealed that China's under-forest economy policies were reasonably well-designed,there was a need to integrate short-term and longterm forest economy development planning,explore diversified promotion models,and clarify the focus of policy support.