文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：应用最大熵模型预测未来气候变化情景棘角蛇纹春蜓潜在适生区的变化

英文题名：Predicting Changes in Potential Suitable Habitats of Ophiogomphus spinicorne under Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the Maximum Entropy Model

作者：陈文昱[1] 宋大北[2] 顾殿春[3] 孟兆民[3] 王鸿斌[1] 王梅[1] 李国宏[1]

第一作者：陈文昱

机构：[1]生物多样性保护国家林业和草原局重点实验室(中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所),北京100091;[2]克什克腾旗林业和草原局;[3]克什克腾旗大局子林场

年份：2025

卷号：53

期号：11

起止页码：46-53

中文期刊名：东北林业大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Northeast Forestry University

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项项目(CAFYBB2022SY025、CAFYBB2020ZD001)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：棘角蛇纹春蜓;潜在适生区;最大熵模型

外文关键词：Ophiogomphus spinicornis;Potential suitable habitat;MaxEnt model

分类号：Q968.2

摘要：为了研究棘角蛇纹春蜓(Ophiogomphus spinicornis)在全球气候变化下的潜在适生区变化,通过野外调查、文献检索和全球生物多样性信息服务网络平台(GBIF)等渠道获取棘角蛇纹春蜓在中国、俄罗斯、蒙古三国的75个分布记录,应用ENMTools和SPSS最终筛选出28个有效分布记录和9个重要环境因子,并应用参数优化后的最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对棘角蛇纹春蜓的潜在适生区进行预测。同时,应用BCC-CSM2-MR模型在SSP585气候变化情景预测的2081—2100年环境气候因子,对该物种未来潜在适生区进行了评估。通过分析环境因子贡献率、置换重要值、刀切法检验评估和响应曲线,识别了制约棘角蛇纹春蜓潜在适生区的关键生物因子,并确定了适生区的潜在分布。结果表明:①最大熵模型的预测准确度较高,AUC值达0.971,棘角蛇纹春蜓的潜在适生区占全球陆地面积的8.38%,主要分布于我国云贵高原、黄河以北地区,以及俄罗斯的高加索山脉和西伯利亚南缘的广大区域;②影响棘角蛇纹春蜓的潜在适生区的主要生物气候因子为年平均气温和最冷季降水量,其中,年平均气温是影响棘角蛇纹春蜓分布的关键因素;③在2081—2100年SSP585气候情景,棘角蛇纹春蜓的各等级适生区较当前潜在适生区均有所缩减,且整体上有向高纬度区域迁移的趋势,当前适生区南界(华北、东北)附近的种群面临数量锐减甚至局部灭绝的风险。
To investigate the changes in potential suitable habitats of Ophiogomphus spinicornis under global climate change,75 distribution records of O.spinicornis in China,Russia,and Mongolia were obtained through field surveys,literature reviews,and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF).Using ENMTools and SPSS,28 valid distribution records and 9 key environmental factors were finally screened out.The potential suitable habitats of O.spinicornis were predicted by the parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model.Meanwhile,the environmental climate factors for the period 2081-2100 predicted by the BCC-CSM2-MR model under the SSP585 climate change scenario were used to assess the future potential suitable habitats of this species.By analyzing the contribution rates of environmental factors,permutation importance values,jackknife tests,and response curves,the key bioclimatic factors restricting the potential suitable habitats of O.spinicornis were identified,and the potential distribution of suitable habitats was determined.The results showed that:(1)The MaxEnt model had high prediction accuracy with an AUC value of 0.971.The potential suitable habitats of O.spinicornis accounted for 8.38%of the global land area,mainly distributed in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and areas north of the Yellow River in China,as well as the vast regions of the Caucasus Mountains in Russia and the southern margin of Siberia.(2)The main bioclimatic factors affecting the potential suitable habitats of O.spinicornis were the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the coldest season,among which the annual mean temperature was the key factor influencing the distribution of O.spinicornis.(3)Under the SSP585 climate scenario for 2081-2100,the suitable habitats of all levels for O.spinicornis were reduced compared with the current potential suitable habitats,and there was an overall trend of migration to high-latitude regions.Populations near the southern boundary of the current suitable habitats(North China and Northeast China)face the risk of sharp population decline or even local extinction.