文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The Impact of Supply and Demand Shocks on Chinese Wood Market

作者：Jiang, Yeheng[1] Su, Haiying[1] Qian, Weicong[1]

第一作者：蒋业恒

通信作者：Qian, WC[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry Policy & Informat, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China

年份：2025

卷号：16

期号：8

外文期刊名：FORESTS

收录：;EI(收录号：20253519080861);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105014370024);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001558716000001)】；

基金：This research was funded by the program of Research on Sustainable Commodity Supply Chain under Climate Change (500103-1158).

语种：英文

外文关键词：domestic timber; imported timber; supply and demand shocks; Chinese wood market

摘要：China's timber market is very complex and heterogeneous, and is experiencing the impact of the construction of national reserve forests and the downturn in the real estate sector. By setting up a partial equilibrium model which reflects the heterogeneity of China's wood market, not only difference among domestic timber groups can be identified, but the dissimilarity of imported timber can also be differentiated from the aspects of species and sources. This model is capable of capturing the effects of macroeconomic conditions, forestry sector policies, and trade cost variations on China's timber market structure. According to simulations of supply shocks, China's large-diameter log capacity enhancement will have a noticeable crowding-out effect on imported timber, suggesting the diameter of logs is an important factor for market entities to make trade-offs between domestic and imported timber. Amidst both supply and demand shocks, the equilibrium quantity changes in China's domestic small-diameter logs and imported timber are dominated by demand shocks, whereas the equilibrium quantity change in China's domestic large-diameter logs is dominated by supply shocks; moreover, only domestic large-diameter logs realize quantity increase in double shocks; this improves China's domestic timber supply structure, and is a good example of "opportunities in crisis" in the face of negative demand shocks.