文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于生态足迹模型的中国未来发展情景分析

英文题名：Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of China's Development Based on the Ecological Footprint Method

作者：刘某承[1,2] 王斌[3] 李文华[1]

第一作者：刘某承

机构：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;[2]中国科学院研究生院;[3]中国林科院亚热带林业研究所

年份：2010

期号：1

起止页码：163-170

中文期刊名：资源科学

外文期刊名：Resources Science

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2008】；CSCD:【CSCD2011_2012】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2010_2011】；

基金：国家环境保护部专项:"国家重大环境问题决策支持"(编号:2008ZX002)

语种：中文

中文关键词：生态足迹;生物承载力;动态模型;情景分析;中国

外文关键词：Ecological footprint; Biocapacity; Dynamic model; Scenario analysis; China

分类号：X22;TN911.7

摘要：生态足迹是近年来国际上一种重要的判别可持续发展程度的生物物理量方法。本文对1949年-2008年中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力进行了测算,在此基础上使用经验模态分解方法建立一个非线性的动态预测模型,并进行长时间的模拟验证,后又分"惯性发展"和"稳步调整"两个情景对中国未来20年发展的生态潜力进行预测,结果表明:①建国60年以来中国的人均生态足迹在小幅波动中不断上升,同时人均生态承载力不断降低,从1985年起中国整体上处于生态赤字期;②若按照惯性发展,则2030年人均生态赤字将达到3.9024hm2/cap,可持续发展形势非常严峻;③若按照"稳步调整"情景,则2030年人均生态赤字为1.5217hm2/cap,这种程度的生态超载有可能通过一些技术手段如国际贸易等来缓解。最后,基于计算和情景分析提出可持续发展建议。
Ecological footprint, as a kind of physical indicator to measure the extent of human＇ s use of nature resources, has become one of the most effective methods to quantitatively assess sustainable development, also drawing much attention since developed by Wackernagel and Rees in 1996. In the present work, the authors calculated per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China during the period 1949 to 2008. Then, fluctuant cycles of the per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity were decomposed and derived based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） method and nonlinear dynamic prediction models were also presented. We proposed two prediction scenarios, named the business-as-usual scenario and the steady adjustment scenario, to project ecological potential of China＇ s economic development for the next 20 years. Results showed that over past 60 years, the per capita ecological footprint increased unsteadily. Meanwhile, the per capita biocapacity reduced consistently. Since 1985 China has showed an aggregated ecological deficit. It was found that the business-as-usual scenario tended to illuminate the consequence that per capita ecological footprint, per capita biocapacity and per capita ecological deficit would become 4.6033hm^2, ,0.7008hm^2 and 3.9024hm^2, respectively, in China in 2030 if mean annual change rates of per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity remained constant, which would lead China to a grim and complex situation. It was also found that if productivity of natural ecosystems increased by 10%, the consumption of natural ecosystems and emission of CO2 and contamination reduced by 10%, per capita ecological footprint, per capita biocapacity and per capita ecological deficit would become 2.4391hm^2, 0.9174hm^2 and 1.5217hm^2, respectively, in China in 2030, better benefiting potential of sustainable development in China than did the business-as-usual scenario. It should be pointed out that China＇ s current situation is in a dilemma. On the one hand, China is still a developing country with a portion of population still living under the poverty line. Therefore, striving for developing domestic economy should have to be the only way to raise the level of living standard of people. On the other hand, the rapid growth of economy will increase population as well as result in more pressure on the ecological system, significantly aggravating the ecological overloading. As such, in order to really achieve the ＇ steady adjustment＇ scenario proposed in this work, some suggestions benefiting sustainable development were also given as follows： increasing land productivity for meeting growing demands, reducing over-consumption of resources with the objective of effectively mitigating ecological backpack, promoting resource-saving consumption and paying much attention to international trades.