文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于气候因子的兴安落叶松天然林单木直径生长模型构建

英文题名：Development of individual-tree diameter increment model for natural Larix gmelinii forests based on climatic factors

作者：杨鑫[1] 王建军[2] 杜志[3] 王文文[1] 孟京辉[1]

第一作者：杨鑫

机构：[1]北京林业大学国家林业和草原局森林经营工程技术研究中心,北京100083;[2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091;[3]国家林业和草原局中南调查规划设计院,湖南长沙410014

年份：2022

卷号：44

期号：8

起止页码：1-11

中文期刊名：北京林业大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Beijing Forestry University

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：国家林业和草原局重点工程项目前期研究项目(500102-5103);内蒙森工集团科技支撑项目(NXLKJ﹝2021﹞005-1)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：兴安落叶松;单木胸径生长;气候因子;线性混合效应模型

外文关键词：Larix gmelinii;individual-tree DBH growth;climatic factor;liner mixed effect model

分类号：S791.22

摘要：【目的】建立基于气候因子的兴安落叶松天然林单木直径生长模型用于预测胸径生长,为内蒙古大兴安岭地区兴安落叶松天然林经营管理提供理论依据。【方法】基于内蒙古大兴安岭地区2013、2018年森林资源连续清查数据中的187块兴安落叶松天然林固定样地及样地位置对应的气候数据,运用逐步回归法建立考虑气候因子的传统单木直径生长模型,并在此基础上,加入样地效应构建兴安落叶松单木直径生长混合效应模型。最后,利用独立检验样本数据对基础模型和混合效应模型进行检验。【结果】年平均气温MAT、生长季平均降雨量P_(gm)是影响该地区兴安落叶松胸径生长量的主要气候因素,二者与胸径生长量均呈正相关。其余显著影响胸径生长量的因子包括初期胸径的倒数(1/DBH)、大于对象木的断面积和(BAL)、每公顷株数(NT),3个变量都与胸径生长量呈负相关。胸径混合效应模型的决定系数(R^(2))为0.7604,平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.3866和0.4863 cm^(2)。与基础模型相比,混合效应模型的R^(2)提高了0.3217,MAE和RMSE减少了0.2306和0.2674 cm^(2)。在模型检验中,混合效应模型也呈现出了较好的拟合效果。【结论】基于气候因子的单木直径生长混合效应模型可以较好地描述内蒙古大兴安岭地区的兴安落叶松胸径生长过程。
[Objective]This research aims to develop an individual-tree diameter increment model of natural Larix gmelinii forests based on climatic factors in order to predict the DBH growth and provide a theoretical basis for the management of natural Larix gmelinii forests in Daxing’an Mountain Region,Inner Mongolia of northern China.[Method]Based on the 187 permanent sample plots of natural Larix gmelinii forests(national forest continuous inventory in 2013 and 2018)in Daxing’an Mountains and climate data,we employed the step-by-step regression analysis to develop a traditional individual-tree diameter growth model considering climatic factors.On this basis,sample plot effects were further introduced to develop individual-tree mixed-effect model of Larix gmelinii.Finally,the basic and mixed-effect models were tested using independent test sample data.[Result]Mean annual temperature(MAT)and mean precipitation of growing season(P_(gm))were the main climatic factors which affected DBH growth of Larix gmelinii in the region.MAT and P_(gm) were positively correlated with the DBH growth.Other factors significantly affecting the DBH growth included the reciprocal of the initial DBH(1/DBH),basal area of trees larger than the subject tree(BAL)and the number of trees(NT),and all of them showed negative correlation with the DBH growth.The coefficient of determination(R^(2)),mean absolute error(MAE)and root-mean-square error(RMSE)for the mixed-effect model were 0.7604,0.3866 and 0.4863 cm^(2),respectively.Compared with traditional model,the R^(2) of mixed-effect model increased by 0.3217,and the MAE and RMSE reduced by 0.2306 and 0.2674 cm^(2),respectively.The mixed-effect model also showed better fitting accuracy in the model tests.[Conclusion]Using individual-tree mixed-effect model based on climatic factors can well describe the DBH growth process of Larix gmelinii in Daxing’an Mountain Region,Inner Mongolia.