文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Modeling tree mortality in relation to climate, initial planting density, and competition in Chinese fir plantations using a Bayesian logistic multilevel method

作者：Zhang, Xiongqing[1,2] Cao, Quang V.[3] Duan, Aiguo[1,2] Zhang, Jianguo[1,2]

第一作者：Zhang, Xiongqing;张雄清

通信作者：Zhang, JG[1];Zhang, JG[2]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry, Key Lab Tree Breeding & Cultivat, State Key Lab Tree Genet & Breeding,State Forestr, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China;[2]Nanjing Forestry Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Sustainable Forestry South, 159 Lonpan Rd, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;[3]Louisiana State Univ, Ctr Agr, Sch Renewable Nat Resources, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA

年份：2017

卷号：47

期号：9

起止页码：1278-1285

外文期刊名：CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH

收录：;EI(收录号：20175004524252);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85037364022);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000408223000014)】；

基金：The authors express their appreciation to the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Non-profit Research Institution of CAF (CAFYBB2017ZX001-2), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31670634), and the Scientific and Technological Task in China (No. 2016YFD0600302-1).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Bayesian logistic multilevel model; climate; initial planting density and competition; tree mortality; variance partition coefficient

摘要：Tree mortality models are important tools for simulating forest dynamic processes, and logistic regression is widely used for modeling tree mortality. However, most of the mortality models that have been developed generally ignore the hierarchical structure. In this study, Bayesian logistic multilevel mortality models were developed with the independent variables of initial planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors in Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantations in southern China. The results showed that a Bayesian three-level model was best for describing tree mortality data with multiple sources of unobserved heterogeneity compared to fixed-effects and two-level models. The variance partition coefficient of tree mortality due to the tree level was much larger than that due to the plot level. The initial planting density and site index were positively correlated with mortality and symmetric competition was negatively correlated. For climate variables, the mortality probability decreased with the increasing mean annual temperature and previous summer mean temperature. By contrast, the mortality probability increased with the increasing previous winter mean minimum temperature and annual heat-moisture index. Identifying different sources of variation in tree mortality will help further our understanding of the factors that drive tree mortality during climate change.