文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于IPCC生产法的我国木质林产品碳储量动态评估及驱动因素分析

英文题名：Dynamic Assessment of Carbon Storage of Harvested Wood Products(HWP)in China and Driving Factors Analysis Based on IPCC Production Approach

作者：陈碧雁[1,2] 徐金梅[1,3] 陈秀芳[2] 张波[2]

第一作者：陈碧雁

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院木材工业研究所,北京100091;[2]浙江理工大学材料科学与工程学院,杭州310018;[3]林草碳汇研究院,北京100091

年份：2025

卷号：61

期号：12

起止页码：153-163

中文期刊名：林业科学

外文期刊名：Scientia Silvae Sinicae

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0613802);国家自然科学基金项目(32371806);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CAFYBB2025ZA018,CAFYBB2023ZA003-3)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：木质林产品;生产法;碳储量;碳减排;碳转移

外文关键词：harvested wood products(HWP);production approach;carbon storage;carbon emission reduction;carbon transfer

分类号：TS65

摘要：【目的】木质林产品(HWP)国际贸易引发的碳排放分配和碳储量归属是国际气候变化谈判中最具争议的议题之一。采用最新生产法和国内官方数据库数据核算我国HWP碳储量,探明HWP碳储量变化及驱动因素,提升其在国家碳循环中的作用,量化其碳库功能,提高对未来碳储量变化预测的准确性,制定合理的政策和措施,巩固我国在气候变化谈判中的立场和地位,以应对气候变化、实现我国“碳达峰碳中和”目标。【方法】应用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)国家温室气体清单指南方法,结合我国历年生产贸易数据以及适合我国国情的参数,采用基于IPCC一阶衰减法的2019年修订版生产法(PA-2019),将我国HWP分为在用和废弃2个阶段,核算1978—2022年的碳储量并分析其变化的驱动因素。【结果】受国情、政策和自然灾害等影响,前期我国HWP碳储量水平较低、波动较大,随着经济好转和森林经营策略转变,HWP行业迅速发展,其碳储量总体呈不断增加且增长速度加快的趋势。在用环节的HWP年度碳储量从1978年的6.16 Tg增至2022年的198.01 Tg(以CO_(2)eq计),累计碳储量为2973.72 Tg(以CO_(2)eq计);废弃环节的HWP年度碳储量从1978年的1.56 Tg增至2022年的21.11 Tg(以CO_(2)eq计),累计碳储量为290.89 Tg(以CO_(2)eq计)。1978—2022年45年间,累计总碳储量为3264.61 Tg(以CO_(2)eq计),在用环节的累计碳储量占累计总碳储量的91.09%,其中人造板对碳储量的贡献最大,占比达68.15%,并在敏感度分析中占据主导地位;锯材、纸和纸板分别占比16.38%、15.47%。【结论】HWP是我国重要的碳储存资源,在固碳减排中占有重要地位,准确核算HWP碳储量不仅可为国家温室气体清单编制提供数据基础和理论支撑,还可为我国在国际气候谈判中争取更有利的地位,为全球气候治理贡献力量。
【Objective】The allocation of carbon emissions and the attribution of carbon storage resulting from international trade in harvested wood products(HWP)are one of the most controversial issues in international climate change negotiations.The latest production method and data from domestic official databases were used to calculate the carbon storage of HWP in China,investigate the changes and driving factors of HWP carbon storage,enhance its role in China’s carbon cycle,quantify its carbon pool function,and improve the accuracy of future predictions regarding carbon storage variations,by which the rational policies and measures were formulated,in order to consolidate China’s position and status in climate change negotiations for addressing climate change and achieving China’s“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”goals.【Method】By applying the method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,combined with the production and trade data of China over the years and parameters suitable for China’s national conditions,China’s HWP was divided into two stages:in-use and disposed.The carbon storage from 1978 to 2022 was calculated by adopting the 2019 revised version of the production approach(PA-2019)based on IPCC first-order decay method,and the driving factors of its changes were analyzed.【Result】Affected by national conditions,policies and natural disasters,the level of HWP carbon storage in China was relatively low and fluctuated greatly in the early stage.With the improvement of the economy and the transformation of forest management strategies,the HWP industry has developed rapidly,and the carbon storage of China’s HWP has generally shown an increasing trend,with a accelerating increasing rate.The annual carbon storage of in-use HWP had increased from 6.16 Tg CO_(2)eq in 1978 to 198.01 Tg CO_(2)eq in 2022,with a cumulative carbon storage of 2973.72 Tg CO_(2)eq.The annual carbon storage of disposed HWP had grown from 1.56 Tg CO_(2)eq in 1978 to 21.11 Tg CO_(2)eq in 2022,with a cumulative carbon storage of 290.89 Tg CO_(2)eq.Over a period of 45 years from 1978 to 2022,the total cumulative carbon storage was 3264.61 Tg CO_(2)eq,with the cumulative carbon storage of in-use HWP accounting for 91.09%of total cumulative carbon storage.Among them,wood-based panels contributed the most to the carbon storage,accounting for as much as 68.15%,and played a dominant role in the sensitivity analysis.Sawnwood,and paper and paperboard accounted for 16.38%and 15.47%,respectively.【Conclusion】HWP is an important carbon storage resource in China,and holds a significant position in carbon sequestration and emission reduction.Accurately calculating HWP carbon stocks not only provides a data foundation and theoretical support for the compilation of national greenhouse gas inventories,but also helps China to secure a more favorable position in international climate negotiations and contribute to global climate governance.