文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：气候变化下濒危树种华榛的潜在适生区预测

英文题名：Prediction of Potential Distribution of Endangered Species Corylus chinensis Franch.in Climate Change Context

作者：何馨[1] 马文旭[1] 赵天田[1] 马庆华[1] 梁丽松[1] 王贵禧[1] 杨振[1]

第一作者：何馨

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,国家林业和草原局林木培育重点实验室,榛子产业国家创新联盟,国家林业和草原榛子工程技术研究中心,北京100091

年份：2022

卷号：35

期号：1

起止页码：104-114

中文期刊名：林业科学研究

外文期刊名：Forest Research

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(32101541);中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资助(CAFYBB2020SY007)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：华榛;最大熵模型;气候变化;分布预测;主导环境因子

外文关键词：Corylus chinensis Franch.;MaxEnt;climate change;distribution prediction;dominant environmental factors

分类号：S664.4

摘要：[目的]探究华榛(Corylus chinensis Franch.)地理分布格局随气候的变化趋势,划分不同等级的华榛适生区,为华榛的保护利用提供科学依据。[方法]本研究基于华榛83条现代分布记录信息和筛选后的18个环境变量数据,采用物种分布模型中的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟华榛末次间冰期以来6个时期的潜在分布区。[结果]受试者工作特征曲线下方面积(AUC)结果显示:模拟结果较为准确,温度是影响华榛在6个不同时期地理分布的重要因素。末次间冰期华榛的适生区总面积相比现代少9%左右,末次盛冰期变化不大,全新世中期适生区总面积相对现代多4.4%,预测未来2050s和2070s适生区面积均增加。华榛不同时期的分布中心均位于湖北省,在未来气候变暖情况下分布中心呈向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。从适生区面积来看,华榛在冰期时适生区面积呈收缩趋势,在全新世中期及未来全球气候变暖情境下适生区面积呈扩张趋势。[结论]华榛在气候变化的情境下适生区分布区域不同,温度是影响其分布的主要因子,未来气候变暖条件下分布中心有向高纬度方向迁移的趋势。
[Objective]To explore the change trend of the geographical distribution pattern of Corylus chinensis with climate,divide the suitable areas and provide references for the protection and utilization of C.chinensis.[Method]Based on 83 modern distribution records of C.chinensis and the screened data of 18 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)in the species distribution model was used to simulate the potential distribution areas of C.chinensis in six periods since the last interglacial period.[Result]The results of the area under receiver operating curve(AUC)show that the simulation results are more accurate,and temperature is an important factor affecting the geographical distribution of C.chinensis in six different periods.During the last interglacial period,the total suitable area of C.chinensis decreased by about 9%compared with modern times,and there was little change during the last glacial maximum period.The total suitable area increased by 4.4%compared with modern times in the middle Holocene.It is predicted that the suitable area will increase in 2050s and 2070s.The distribution centers of C.chinensis in different periods are all located in Hubei Province.In the future,the distribution center will show a tendency to migrate to high latitudes under the condition of future climate warming.From the perspective of the suitable area,C.chinensis shows a shrinking trend in the glacial period,and shows an expansion trend in the mid-Holocene and future global warming scenarios.[Conclusion]The distribution area of C.chinensis suitable for climate change is different.Temperature is the main factor affecting its distribution.Under the condition of climate warming in the future,the distribution center will migrate to high latitude.