文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中美贸易摩擦对中国硬木进口贸易的影响

英文题名：The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Hardwood Import Trade

作者：王宏飞[1] 侯方淼[1] 宿海颖[2]

第一作者：王宏飞

机构：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083;[2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091

年份：2021

卷号：43

期号：12

起止页码：24-38

中文期刊名：林业经济

外文期刊名：Forestry Economics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；

基金：国家林业和草原局委托项目“新一轮集体林改及配套改革对我国林产品进口贸易的影响研究”(编号:JYCL-2020-00013);国家自然科学基金项目“1978年以来集体林产权制度及相关林业政策对森林资源与木材供给的影响研究——基于长期大样本动态效率视角”(编号:71673066);国家自然科学基金项目“改革开放40年来我国集体林产权制度及相关林业政策对农户林业生产要素配置及其收入影响——基于多层次长期大样本动态路径”(编号:71873043);中央高校基本业务费课题重点项目“双循环视域下产业集群和全球价值链重构对林业产业高质量发展的影响研究”(编号:2021SRZ02)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：中美贸易摩擦;硬木进口;贸易转移;断点回归

外文关键词：Sino-US trade friction;hardwood import;trade transfer;regression discontinuity

分类号：F426.88

摘要：长期以来中国硬木需求大于供给,从国际进口木材产品是重要的渠道。2010年后美国成为中国硬木进口第一大来源国,中国对美国硬木的进口依赖性渐增。2018年中美贸易摩擦升级,双方加征关税清单涉及大量硬木,对中国硬木进口市场产生显著影响。文章基于海关HS六位数编码月度数据,以关税效应为理论基础,采用稳健时间断点回归(RDiT)模型实证分析中美贸易摩擦对中国硬木进口贸易的影响。结果显示:(1)中国对美国硬木加征进口关税的贸易破坏效应显著,2018-2020年对美国硬木进口量月均减少10.41万m^(3),占2018年对美国平均进口量的34.86%;对美国硬木进口单位值月均提高52.04美元/m^(3),占2018年对美国平均进口单位值的8.92%。(2)中美贸易摩擦在短期内没有引起中国硬木进口发生转移,贸易转移行为具有时滞性,且不同国家的时滞长短不同。对世界其他国家总体的硬木进口转移发生在对美国硬木加征关税的7个月后,月均增加54.89万m^(3),占2018年对世界其他国家平均进口量的25.1%;对泰国、巴布亚新几内亚、俄罗斯和老挝的进口转移时间分别在对美国硬木加征关税的7个月、12个月、3个月和8个月后,分别增加19.09万m^(3)、6.74万m^(3)、6.48万m^(3)和3.75万m^(3),占2018年对各国平均进口量的51.59%、23.05%、19.58%和14.91%;贸易转移效应的进口单位值变化不显著。政策启示:第一,正确审视中美木材贸易关系,避免过度依赖美国市场;第二,强化木材贸易合作,推动进口市场多元化;第三,建立木材贸易预警机制,警惕不确定事件的负面冲击。
For a long time,China’s hardwood demand has exceeded supply,and importing wood products from the world is an important channel.After 2010,the United States has become the largest source of China’s hardwood imports,and China’s dependence on American hardwood imports is increasing.In 2018,the trade friction between China and the United States escalated,and the tariff list imposed by both sides involved a large number of hardwoods,which had a significant impact on China’s hardwood import market.Based on the monthly data of HS six digit code of customs,and based on the tariff effect,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s hardwood import trade by using the robust Regression Discontinuity in Time(RDiT)model.The results showed that:(1)China’s imposition of import tariffs on American hardwood had a significant trade damaging effect.From 2018 to 2020,the monthly hardwood import volume to the United States decreased by 104100 m^(3),accounting for 34.86%of the average import volume to the United States in 2018.The unit value of hardwood imports to the United States increased by 52.04 US dollars/m^(3)per month,accounting for 8.92%of the average unit value of hardwood imports to the United States in 2018.(2)Sino-US trade friction had not caused the transfer of China’s hardwood imports in the short term.The trade transfer behavior had time lag,and the length of time lag was different in different countries.The overall hardwood import transfer to other countries in the world occurred seven months after the imposition of tariffs on American hardwood,with an average monthly increase of548900 m^(3),accounting for 25.1%of the average import to other countries in the world in 2018.The import transfer time to Thailand,Papua New Guinea,Russia and Laos increased by 190900 m^(3),67400 m^(3),64800 m^(3)and 37500m^(3)respectively after seven,twelve,three and eight months of the imposition of tariffs on American hardwood,accounting for 51.59%,23.05%,19.58%and 14.91%of the average import volume to various countries in 2018.The change of import unit value of trade transfer effect was not significant.Policy implications were put forward as follows:First,Sino-US timber trade relations should be correctly examined and avoid over reliance on the US market.Second,timber trade cooperation should be strengthened,and the diversification of import markets should be promoted.Third,an early warning mechanism for the negative impact of timber trade should be established.