文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国碳中和目标下的二氧化碳排放路径

英文题名：China’s carbon emission pathway under the carbon neutrality target

作者：蔡博峰[1] 曹丽斌[1] 雷宇[1] 王灿[2] 张立[1] 朱建华[3] 李明煜[2] 杜梦冰[4] 吕晨[1] 蒋含颖[2] 宁淼[1] 王金南[1]

第一作者：蔡博峰

机构：[1]生态环境部环境规划院气候变化与环境政策研究中心,北京100012;[2]清华大学环境学院,北京100084;[3]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091;[4]香港城市大学公共政策系,中国香港999077

年份：2021

卷号：31

期号：1

起止页码：7-14

中文期刊名：中国人口·资源与环境

外文期刊名：China Population,Resources and Environment

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2021_2022】；

基金：生态环境部专题项目“十四五”“碳排放总量控制目标和制度研究”(批准号:2019CZ005);国家重点研发计划课题“区域地球系统模式与数据服务平台建设和应用”(批准号:2018YFA0606004)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：中国;二氧化碳排放路径;空间化;碳中和

外文关键词：China;CO_(2) emission pathway;spatial;carbon neutrality

分类号：F832.0

摘要：结合中国中长期规划研究成果和国内外学术文献,充分考虑中国现阶段以工业为主的产业结构、以煤为主的能源结构,以及新技术研发和投入使用周期,利用中国高空间分辨率排放网格数据库(China high resolution emission gridded database,CHRED),自上而下(基于中国中长期排放和强度目标并参考IPCC-SSPs排放情景)和自下而上(基于CHRED 50 km网格分部门排放,利用空间公平趋同模型),建立中国碳中和目标下的2020—2060年二氧化碳排放路径(CAEP-CP 1.1)。CAEP-CP 1.1表明,中国2027年左右达峰,二氧化碳排放峰值为106亿t,达峰后经历5~7年平台期,2030年二氧化碳排放量为105亿t。CAEP-CP 1.1空间格局(50 km)在2030年和IPCC排放情景基本一致,但2060年差异较为显著,主要由于CAEP-CP 1.1是基于中国2060年碳中和的目标,相比IPCC情景减排力度更强。2060年排放格局下,中国基本实现超低排放,绝大部分区域(50 km×50 km)排放量都低于100万t,而在IPCC的情境下,中国2060年仍有不少区域排放量超过1 000万t。CAEP-CP 1.1空间化排放数据可与IPCC-SSPs(0.5°网格)比对和分析,路径数据可实现部门、区域对标分析和横纵向比较,国家-区域-部门-网格数据联动和双向反馈,可追溯性强(可分析每个50 km空间网格分部门排放和相关参数),便于根据实际发展、国家重大决策变化和认知提升等动态调整和迭代升级路径数据,有利于决策者在国家-区域-部门层面模拟和推演不同政策措施下的排放情景,为二氧化碳排放管控科学化、精准化提供重要支撑。
This research attempts to establish a China 2020-2060 CO_(2) emission pathway(CAEP-CP 1.1)under the carbon neutral target(2060),using top-down(China’s medium-and long-term CO_(2) emission and intensity targets and IPCC-SSPs emission pathways)and bottom-up(based on CHRED 50 km gridded emissions,using Spatial-Equity based Emission Convergence Model)methods.Built on China High Resolution Emission Gridded Database(CHRED),the CAEP-CP 1.1 pathway combines China’s medium-and long-term planning research and academic literature and fully considers China’s current industrial structure,coal-based energy structure,etc.,as well as new technology research and development and operational cycles.The pathway shows that China will reach its emission peak in around 2027,with peak CO_(2) emissions of 10.6 billion tons.After reaching the peak,it will experience a plateau period of 5-7 years.In 2030,China’s CO_(2) emissions will be 10.5 billion tons.The spatial pattern of CAEP-CP 1.1(50 km)in 2030 is broadly consistent with the IPCC emission scenario,but the differences in 2060 are significant.This is mainly because CAEP-CP 1.1 is based on China’s 2060 carbon neutral target,which is much stricter than that of IPCC.Under the emission pattern of 2060,China will basically achieve ultra-low emissions across the country,with emissions in most regions(50 km×50 km)below 1 million tons.In the context of IPCC,China will still have many regions with the emission level above 10 million tons in 2060.CAEP-CP 1.1 shows that the established spatial CO_(2) emission pathway will support benchmarking analysis between sectors and regions,and two-way feedbacks through multi-level country-region-department-grid data.CAEP-CP 1.1 is also traceable to CO_(2) emissions and related parameters of each 50 km spatial grid.This research is significant for academic researchers and policy makers to①dynamically adjust and iteratively upgrade CO_(2) emission scenarios based on specific conditions;②simulate and derive CO_(2) emission scenarios under different policies and strategies at different levels(national,provincial,and local)and provide support for high-resolution and precise emission control and management.