文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国森林生态系统碳汇现状与潜力

英文题名：The current and potential carbon sink in forest ecosystem in China

作者：朱建华[1,2,3] 田宇[1,4] 李奇[1,5] 刘华妍[1,2] 郭学媛[1,2] 田惠玲[1,2] 刘常富[1,2,3] 肖文发[1,2,3]

第一作者：朱建华

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091;[2]国家林业和草原局林业碳汇计量与研究中心,北京100091;[3]南京林业大学南方现代林业协同创新中心,南京210037;[4]中节能生态产品发展研究中心有限公司,北京100084;[5]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065

年份：2023

卷号：43

期号：9

起止页码：3442-3457

中文期刊名：生态学报

外文期刊名：Acta Ecologica Sinica

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2023_2024】；

基金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(32192434);“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0600200)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：森林生态系统;森林面积;碳储量变化;碳汇潜力

外文关键词：forest ecosystem;forest area;carbon stock change;potential carbon sinks

分类号：S718.5;X173

摘要：巩固和提升森林碳汇,是实现中国“碳中和”目标的重要路径之一。研究总结梳理了近10年来有关中国森林碳储量及其变化的研究文献,一方面在于探明中国森林碳汇现状和潜力以及对实现“碳中和”的贡献,同时分析当前森林碳汇计量与模拟预测研究的差距与不足,更好地支撑国家碳中和实施路径与行动方案。通过整合分析,1999—2018年间中国森林生态系统碳储量年均增长量约(208.0±44.5)TgC/a或(762.0±163.2)TgCO_(2)-eq/a,其中生物质、死有机质和土壤有机碳库的年均增长量分别约为(168.8±42.4)TgC/a、(12.5±8.1)TgC/a和(26.7±10.9)TgC/a。此外,木质林产品和森林之外的其它林木碳储量分别增长(49.0±15.1)TgC/a和(12.0±11.1)TgC/a。预计中国乔木林生物质碳储量年变化量将从1999—2018年间的(145.9±38.3)TgC/a增长至2030—2039年间的(171.9±60.5)TgC/a,到2050—2059年间逐渐下降至(146.9±57.7)TgC/a。2050—2059年间中国森林生态系统碳储量年变化量有可能达到(247.0±71.2)TgC/a或(905.2±260.8)TgCO_(2)-eq/a。但由于不同研究对森林的定义有较大的差别,再加上数据来源、方法和参数、假设条件等存在差异,中国森林碳储量及其变化的评估预测结果存在较大的不确定性。未来需要在统一土地利用分类的基础上,明确森林面积及其边界的空间变化,综合考虑土地利用变化、气候变化以及人为活动管理等的影响,全面评估森林生态系统各碳库和预测碳汇动态,有效支撑实现中国“碳中和”宏伟目标。
Conserving and enhancing forest carbon sinks is one of the important paths to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal.This paper summarized the research literatures on China's forest carbon stock and carbon stock change(CSC)in the past 10 years,with one aim to prove the current and potential forest carbon sink and its contribution to carbon neutrality,and the other aim to reveal the gaps and shortages in forest carbon sink simulation and prediction research,and to better support the national implementation pathways and actions to carbon neutrality.The results show that the mean annual CSC in China's forest ecosystems during 1999-2018 was about(208.0±44.5)TgC/a or(762.0±163.2)TgCO_(2)-eq/a,among which the mean annual CSC in forest biomass,dead organic matter and soil organic carbon were(168.8±42.4)TgC/a,(12.5±8.1)TgC/a and(26.7±10.9)TgC/a,respectively.In addition,the carbon stocks in harvested wood products and trees outside forest in China increased by(49.0±15.1)TgC/a and(12.0±11.1)TgC/a during 1999-2018,respectively.The mean annual CSC of biomass in arbor forests in China will increase from(145.9±38.3)TgC/a during 1999-2018 to(171.9±60.5)TgC/a in 2030s,and then gradually decrease to(146.9±57.7)TgC/a in 2050s.By 2050s,the mean annual CSC in China's forest ecosystems will reach(247.0±71.2)TgC/a or(905.2±260.8)TgCO_(2)-eq/a.The differences in the definitions of forests,data sources,estimation methods and parameters,and unreasonable assumptions in different studies resulted in a large uncertainty in the assessment and prediction results of China's forest carbon stock and its changes.It is necessary to unify the land use classification and clarify the changes in forest area and its spatial distribution,comprehensively consider the impacts of land use change,climate change and human activity management,and to assess the dynamics of all carbon pools in forest ecosystem in the future,which will effectively support achieving China's ambitious goal of carbon neutrality.