文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：美国对华加征关税对中国林产品出口的贸易阻碍与贸易偏转效应分析

英文题名：Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion Effect Under the Influence of US Additional Tariff on China’s Export of Forest Products

作者：郑休休[1] 张曦[2] 陈勇[2]

第一作者：郑休休

机构：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872;[2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091

年份：2022

卷号：35

期号：6

起止页码：107-112

中文期刊名：世界林业研究

外文期刊名：World Forestry Research

收录：北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；

基金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“技术性贸易壁垒影响下的中国企业产品出口二元边际、贸易偏转与质量升级”(21FYB017);中国博士后科学基金会第68批面上项目“技术性贸易壁垒对中国企业出口表现及产品质量升级的影响研究”(2020M680792)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：贸易摩擦;关税;林产品;贸易阻碍;贸易偏转;中国;美国

外文关键词：trade friction;tariff;forest product;trade destruction;trade diversion;China;the United States of America

分类号：F741.2;F746.12

摘要：文中首先整理2018-2019年美国对华加征关税的各轮产品清单及相关加征关税税率,检验美国对华实际关税税率变化对于中国各省(区、市)林产品出口表现的影响,包括上述关税变动冲击所产生的贸易阻碍和贸易偏转效应。研究发现:1)在美国对华加征关税清单公布和生效后,短期内美国对华实际关税税率的上升阻碍了中国林产品对美出口贸易,但中方恢复较快;2)美国对华实际关税税率的上升引发了中国林产品对其他主要贸易伙伴出口偏转规模的显著增加;3)上述贸易偏转效应显著存在于我国东部和中部地区。据此,建议我国政府部门与行业协会加强信息传递与风险预警能力,注重开发替代市场以保障林产品出口安全,并充分利用“双循环”发展机遇,加快实现林产品的国内产业生产转移及销售拓展。
The paper collates all the lists of product subject to additional tariff which were released by the USA against China in 2018-2019, and collects the related additional tariff rates, in a view to examining the impact of the changes in the applied tariff rates by the USA on the province-level export performance of forest products from China, including the trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect. Results show that: 1) The rise of the USA’s applied tariff rates has caused trade destruction effect on China’s export of forest products to the United States in a short period of time after the lists were announced and took effect, but China’s export recovers quickly;2) The rise of the applied tariff rates has significantly increased the trade diversion effect on China’s export of forest products to China’s other major trading partners;and 3) the above trade diversion effect holds in the eastern and central regions of China. Therefore, it is suggested that the government and industry associations in China should strengthen the ability of information delivery and risk early-warning, explore alternative international markets to ensure the export security of forest products, and take the opportunity of the “dual circulation” development to accelerate domestic industrial relocation and market expansion of forest products.