文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：雷击火发生预报的研究进展

英文题名：A Review of Recent Advances in Lightning Fire Prediction

作者：彭玉娴[1] 田晓瑞[1] 李思薇[1] 司莉青[1] 王明玉[1]

第一作者：彭玉娴

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业草原火灾监测预警与防控工程技术研究中心,北京100091

年份：2024

卷号：4

期号：2

起止页码：65-70

中文期刊名：陆地生态系统与保护学报

外文期刊名：Terrestrial Ecosystem and Conservation

基金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目资助(2023YFC3006803)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：雷击火;驱动因子;预测模型;闪电特征

外文关键词：lightning fire;drivers;prediction model;lightning characteristics

分类号：S718.5

摘要：雷击火是最主要的自然火,也是全球植被过火面积的主要形成因子。闪电成因比较复杂,因此很难准确预测闪电和雷击火发生。随着对闪电监测能力的提高,雷击火发生预报在林火管理中逐渐得到应用。雷击火发生预报一般采用统计回归模型或机器学习方法,包括逻辑回归模型、随机森林模型、广义线性模型等。从雷击火的主要因子、闪电特征和预报方法3个方面总结相关研究进展,重点综述雷击火的驱动因子和发生预报方法。结合当前雷击火预报技术中存在的问题,总结了未来的研究方向。今后需要针对不同生态区的可燃物特征和雷击火发生特点,发展满足不同管理需求的雷击火发生预测模型,提高雷击火发生的预测能力。
Lightning fires are the most common natural fires,which is the main cause for burned areas on global vegetation.The lightning fire occurrence is influenced by various factors,so it is difficult to predict accurately.Its prediction has been gradually applied in wildfire management with the improvement of lightning monitoring capabilities.Statistical regression model and machine learning methods are popularly used in lightning fire prediction,including logical regression,random forest,generalized linear,etc.This paper summarized recent research advances from three aspects,such as the main drivers,lightning characteristics,and prediction methods,and elaborates on the driving factors and forecasting models.The future researches were proposed incorporating with the current problems in lightning fire prediction.It is necessary to develop prediction models to satisfy various management needs according to fuel characteristics and lightning fire occurrences in different ecological zones,so as to improve the prediction ability of lightning fire occurrence.