文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于MaxEnt模型的石柱县马尾松毛虫害风险空间分布估测

英文题名：Estimation of Spatial Distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus Disaster Risk in Shizhu County Based on MaxEnt Model

作者：杨馨媛[1,2] 黄水生[1,2] 胡心雨[1,2] 蒋凤[1,2] 蒙方鑫[1,2] 俞琳锋[1,2] 覃先林[1,2]

第一作者：杨馨媛

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091;[2]国家林业和草原局林业遥感与信息技术重点实验室,北京100091

年份：2024

卷号：4

期号：1

起止页码：48-58

中文期刊名：陆地生态系统与保护学报

外文期刊名：Terrestrial Ecosystem and Conservation

基金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1400400)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：马尾松毛虫;MaxEnt模型;地理信息系统;风险分布

外文关键词：Dendrolimus punctatus;maximum entropy model;geographic information system;risk distribution

分类号：S763.42

摘要：【目的】精准掌握重庆市石柱土家族自治县马尾松毛虫害的风险范围,为及时有效地防治虫灾提供有力依据。【方法】选取60个马尾松毛虫分布点的数据,结合该县马尾松区域的地形、气候和人为因子,用MaxEnt模型估测该县的马尾松毛虫害风险。通过环境因子的百分比贡献率、置换重要性和环境因子响应曲线,探讨该县马尾松毛虫适宜生境条件。利用该模型的“训练遗漏、预测面积和阈值达到平衡”的阈值和“阈值熵与原始分布熵相等”的阈值对风险区进行风险分级,将该区域的马尾松毛虫害风险等级划分为低风险、中风险和高风险,并通过地理信息系统统计各个风险区的区域面积。通过该模型AUC均值验证估测精度,以及对比该县2022年马尾松毛虫飞防的区域内各风险区面积占比,对风险分级效果进行验证。【结果】1)年均降水量、月均潜在蒸散发量、距居民点距离和海拔为影响该县马尾松毛虫生存的主要环境因子。2)MaxEnt模型的训练和测试的AUC均值分别为0.92与0.87,标准差为0.013,小于0.05,表明模型的结果为优,预测结果的可靠性高,可用于该县马尾松毛虫害风险估测;通过对比2022年石柱县春季马尾松毛虫的飞防区域,面积占比高达99.05%,表明高风险区分布与其实际分布高度一致,分级效果好。3)该县马尾松毛虫害高风险区主要集中于临溪镇、悦崃镇、鱼池镇、河嘴乡和万朝镇等;王场镇、龙沙镇、王家乡、西沱镇、黎场乡、沿溪镇和万朝镇的高风险区面积占各自乡镇马尾松区域面积高达90%以上。【结论】研究表明,石柱县的马尾松毛虫害高风险区主要集中在西部和北部的乡镇,通过对乡镇间与乡镇内高风险区分布的统计分析,更全面地了解了马尾松毛虫的风险区分布,可为马尾松毛虫的针对性防治与监管提供科学依据。
【Objective】Accurately grasp the risk range of Dendrolimus punctatus in Shizhu Tujia Autonomous County,Chongqing,and provide a strong basis for timely and effective pest control.【Method】In this paper,the MaxEnt model has been used to estimate the risk of D.punctatus in the county using the data from 60 selected distribution points of D.punctatus.These points were combined with the topographic,climatic,and human factors in the growing area of Pinus massoniana.By analyzing the contribution rate and permutation importance of environmental indicators,as well as the response curve of environmental indicators,the suitable habitat conditions of D.punctatus in this county were analyzed.The risk areas were classified using the threshold of'balance training omission,predicted area and threshold value logistic threshold'and the threshold of'equate entropy of thresholded and original distributions logistic threshold'of the model.The risk level of D.punctatus disaster in this area was divided into low risk,medium risk,and high risk,and the area of each risk level was calculated using geographic information system software.The accuracy of the estimation was confirmed through the mean AUC value of the model,and the efficacy of risk classification was verified by comparing the proportional areas of each risk level to the area of D.punctatus aerial control in this county in 2022.【Result】1)The main environmental factors affecting the survival of D.punctatus in this county were annual mean precipitation,monthly average potential evapotranspiration,distance to settlement,and altitude.2)The mean AUC values of training and testing of the MaxEnt model were 0.92 and 0.87,respectively,and the standard deviation was 0.013,which was less than 0.05,indicating that the results of the model were excellent and the prediction results were reliable.It can be used to estimate the risk of D.punctatus disaster in this county.By comparing the area of D.punctatus aerial control in spring of Shizhu County in 2022,the area accounted for as high as 99.05%,indicating that the distribution of high-risk areas was highly unified with its actual distribution,and the classification effect was good.3)The high-risk areas of D.punctatus disaster in this county were mainly concentrated in Linxi Town,Yuelai Town,Yuchi Town,Hezui Town,Wanchao Town and so on.The high-risk areas of Wangchang Town,Longsha Town,Wangjia Township,Xituo Town,Lichang Township,Yanxi Town,and Wanchao Town accounted for more than 90%of the P.massoniana area in each town.【Conclusion】The findings indicated that the high-risk areas for D.punctatus disaster in this county were predominantly located in the western and northern towns.By conducting statistical analyses on the distribution of high-risk areas both inter-and intra-town,a more comprehensive understanding of the distribution of D.punctatus disaster in Shizhu County was achieved,offering a scientific basis for targeted prevention and management of D.punctatus disaster.