文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于Logistic模型的印楝农药专利技术生命周期预测

英文题名：Prediction of Neem Pesticide Patent-based Technology Life Cycle Based on Logistic Model

作者：彭俊杰[1,2] 吴疆翀[1] 彭兴民[1] 李昆[1] 郑益兴[1] 张燕平[1]

第一作者：彭俊杰

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所,昆明650224;[2]易三仓大学商学院,曼谷10240

年份：2021

卷号：60

期号：5

起止页码：326-332

中文期刊名：农药

外文期刊名：Agrochemicals

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD_E2021_2022】；

基金：国家“十三五”重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0505101);国家自然科学基金面上项目(31971696)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：印楝农药;专利技术生命周期;Innography;CNIPR;Logistic;专利计量学

外文关键词：neem pesticide;patent-based technology life cycle;Innography;CNIPR;Logistic;patentometrics

分类号：TQ450

摘要：[目的]为表征世界和中国印楝农药专利发展特征。[方法]基于Innography、CNIPR专利数据库检索近20年的印楝农药专利,采用OriginPro 9.1软件,通过统计图表示印楝农药专利的专利权人分布、专利技术生命周期;进行线性回归分析和曲线回归分析,定量表达印楝农药专利数量变量与相应专利出版时序(数值化日期)变量间的内在关系,揭示世界和中国印楝农药专利发展特征。[结果]印楝农药专利主要分布于A01(农林业)、A23(物料及其处理)、C07(有机化学)、C11(植物油)等IPC大类(Class)中;中国、印度、美国、日本的印楝农药专利数量占世界印楝农药专利数量的71.37%,印楝农药专利的国家分布呈集中分布;排名前10的专利申请人(机构)的印楝农药专利数量占世界印楝农药专利数量的20.60%,印楝农药专利的专利权人分布呈普遍分布;世界和中国印楝农药专利技术生命周期经历了新兴阶段;未来预测分析表明:成长阶段分为渐增期、快增期、渐停期。印楝农药专利技术生命周期成长阶段Logistic模型的预测值与对应的观测值有较高的适当性(Reduced Chi-Sqr≤286.82123),预测准确性高(R_(adj)^(2)≥0.7149)。。
[Aims]This paper aims to gathered more information about the development of neem pesticide.[Methods]The patents of neem pesticide with high technical and commercial value were obtained based on Innography and CNIPR database to retrieve the pesticide active substance related patents of nearly 20 years.By using OriginPro 9.1 software,the statistical map of the patentee distribution,life cycle of neem pesticide patents technology around the world.The linear regression analysis and curve regression analysis were carried out to quantitatively express the internal relationship between the patent number variability and the corresponding patent publication timing(numerical date)variability,and to reveal the development trend of neem pesticide patents.[Results]The results showed that neem patents were mainly distributed in IPC Class,such as A01(agroforestry),A23(materials and treatment),C07(organic chemistry),C11(vegetable oil).The countries of China,India,the United States and Japan accounted for 71.37%of neem pesticide patents in the world.The top 10 patent applicants(institutions)accounted for 20.60%of the world neem pesticide patents,and the patentees of neem pesticide were widely distributed.The technology life cycle of neem pesticide has experienced the emerging stage.The growth stage could be divided into a gradually increasing stage,a rapid increasing stage,and a gradually stagnated stage.The future prediction analysis showed that the predicted value of the Logistic model of the technology life cycle of neem pesticide was with appropriateness(Reduced Chi-Sqr≤286.82123)and accuracy(R_(adj)^(2)≥0.7149).