文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：松嫩鹤乡国家公园创建潜力区土地生境质量演化及多情景预测

英文题名：Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land Habitat Quality in the Potential Area of the Proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park

作者：禹丝思[1,2] 蔡尚书[3,4] 张生瑞[5] 黄嘉诚[6,7] 金崑[1,2]

第一作者：禹丝思

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,北京100091;[2]生物多样性保护国家林业和草原局重点实验室,北京100091;[3]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091;[4]国家林业和草原局林业遥感与信息技术重点实验室,北京100091;[5]中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛266100;[6]中国科学院武汉植物园,武汉430074;[7]中国科学院大学,北京100049

年份：2025

卷号：61

期号：7

起止页码：208-219

中文期刊名：林业科学

外文期刊名：Scientia Silvae Sinicae

收录：;EI(收录号：20253018847880);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105011380286);北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(CAFYBB2023ZA004,CAFYBB2024QD001-04)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：土地利用;生境质量;情景模拟;国家公园;松嫩鹤乡

外文关键词：land use;habitat quality;scenario modelling;national park;Songnen Plain Crane Homeland

分类号：S719;X321

摘要：【目的】构建基于多源遥感数据、土地利用变化模拟及生态评估模型的综合分析框架,系统解析松嫩鹤乡国家公园创建潜力区土地生境质量的时空演变特征及未来发展趋势,为国家公园空间优化与生态管理提供科学支撑。【方法】为探索土地利用变化对生境质量的影响,本研究以1990—2020年松嫩鹤乡国家公园创建潜力区的土地利用变化数据为基础,设定自然发展、城镇发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种未来情景,利用PLUS模型模拟2035年土地利用格局,并结合InVEST模型评估生境质量,进一步分析历史阶段和未来情景下生境质量的演变趋势及其主要驱动因素。【结果】研究结果表明,核心生态栖息地及适宜生态栖息地主要分布于林地、草地和湿地,而耕地及建设用地的生境质量相对较低。1990—2020年,研究区的土地利用结构发生显著变化,耕地与建设用地持续扩张,面积占比分别增加4.37%和8.31%,林地、草地及湿地面积减少,面积占比分别减少1.67%、 2.13%和0.62%,生境质量指数下降0.03,高质量生境面积减少3.61%,生境破碎化趋势加剧。2020—2035年未来情景模拟结果表明,不同土地利用政策对生境质量的影响存在显著差异:在自然发展情景下,生境质量呈现两极分化趋势,核心生态栖息地与受损生态区增幅分别为0.03%和0.97%,而其他生境面积减少0.05%~0.14%;城镇发展情景导致生态退化加剧,受损生态区面积增加0.04%,不适宜栖息地面积增加1.29%;耕地保护情景能在一定程度上维持核心生态栖息地的稳定性,但对整体生境质量的提升作用有限;生态保护情景有助于提高生境质量,核心生态栖息地和适宜生态栖息地面积分别增加0.12%和0.55%。生境质量对不同土地利用类型的响应表现为非线性特征:林地、草地和湿地对生境质量具有显著的提升作用,耕地、水域、建设用地和裸地对生境质量产生负面效应。【结论】1990—2020年,松嫩鹤乡国家公园创建潜力区土地利用变化导致生态用地退化及生境质量下降。2020—2035年,与自然发展、城镇发展和耕地保护情景相比,生态保护情景表现出最积极的生态恢复趋势,可有效提升生境质量并减少受损生态区。研究强调了土地利用结构调整对生态系统功能的深远影响,对拟建国家公园生态本底调查、边界范围和功能区划定具有重要指导意义。
【Objective】The aim of this paper was to construct a comprehensive analysis framework based on multi-source remotely sensed data,land use change simulation,and ecological assessment models to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trends of land habitat quality in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park,providing scientific support for spatial optimization and ecological management of the national park.【Method】To explore the impact of land use change on habitat quality,this study was conducted based on land use change data from 1990 to 2020 in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park.Four future scenarios were set:natural development,urban development,cropland protection,and ecological protection.The PLUS model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2035,and the InVEST model was applied to assess habitat quality.Furthermore,the evolution trends and main driving factors of habitat quality under historical periods and future scenarios were analyzed.【Result】The research results show that core ecological habitat and suitable ecological habitat are mainly distributed in forest,grassland,and wetland,while the habitat quality of cropland and construction land is relatively low.From 1990 to 2020,the land use structure in the study area underwent significant changes,with continuous expansion of cropland and construction land,whose area proportions increased by 4.37%and 8.31%respectively.Meanwhile,the areas of forest,grassland,and wetland decreased,with area proportions reduced by 1.67%,2.13%,and 0.62%,respectively.The habitat quality index declined by 0.03,the area of high-quality habitat decreased by 3.61%,and habitat fragmentation intensified.The future scenario simulation results from 2020 to 2035 indicate significant differences in the impact of different land use policies on habitat quality:under the natural development scenario,habitat quality shows a trend of polarization,with core ecological habitat and damaged ecological area increasing by 0.03%and 0.97%respectively,while the areas of other habitats decrease by 0.05%~0.14%;the urban development scenario leads to intensified ecological degradation,with damaged ecological area increasing by 0.04%and unsuitable habitat increasing by 1.29%;the cropland protection scenario can maintain the stability of core ecological habitat to a certain extent,but its effect on improving overall habitat quality is limited;the ecological protection scenario is help to improve the habitat quality,with the areas of core ecological habitat and suitable ecological habitat increasing by 0.03%and 0.97%respectively.The response of habitat quality to different land use types presented nonlinear characteristics:forest,grassland,and wetlands significantly enhance habitat quality,while cropland,water area,construction land,and bare land have negative effects on habitat quality.【Conclusion】From 1990 to 2020,the land use change lead to the degradation of ecological lands and the decline of habitat quality in the potential area of the proposed Songnen Plain Crane Homeland National Park.From 2020 to 2035,compared with the scenarios of natural development,urban development and cropland protection,the ecological protection scenario exhibits the most positive trend of ecological restoration,effectively improving habitat quality and reducing damaged ecological area.This study highlights the profound impact of land use structure adjustments on ecosystem functions,which is of great guiding significance for the ecological background investigation,boundary scope and functional area demarcation of the proposed national park.