文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于气象因子的杨树溃疡病发生率空间格局研究

英文题名：Research on Spatial Pattern of Poplar Canker Disease's Incidence Rate Based on Meteorological Factor

作者：毕猛[1] 杜婷[1] 马思佳[1,2] 石雷[1]

第一作者：毕猛

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所;[2]西南林业大学

年份：2014

卷号：27

期号：1

起止页码：24-30

中文期刊名：林业科学研究

外文期刊名：Forest Research

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2011】；CSCD:【CSCD2013_2014】；

基金：国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项(201004062);(201204501)

语种：中文

中文关键词：气象因子;杨树溃疡病;发生率;偏最小二乘;空间格局

外文关键词：meteorological factor; poplar canker; incidence rate; partial least squares; spatial pattern

分类号：S763.1

摘要：根据全国范围内2002—2012年杨树溃疡病逐年发生数据,选取发生杨树溃疡病地级行政区的平均发生率作为杨树溃疡病的预测指标,在ClimateChina v4.40气候模拟软件中,计算出发生地区的气象数据。利用偏最小二乘回归,得到杨树溃疡病平均发生率与气象因子的回归方程,即杨树溃疡病平均发生率空间格局模型,并结合地理空间数据和属性数据,预测未来我国杨树溃疡病的潜在变化趋势。结果显示:结合5月平均气温、5月平均最高气温、1月平均最低气温、3月平均最低气温、4月平均最低气温、6月平均最低气温、8月平均最低气温、11月平均降水量、春季平均最低气温、夏季平均最低气温、大于5℃的有效积温度日和大于18℃的有效积温度日12个气象因子建立的杨树溃疡病平均发生率空间格局模型,具有较强的可靠性,据此预测杨树溃疡病平均发生率在2020s、2050s、2080s的空间格局与2002—2012年相比主要呈现出华北、华中和华东地区整体发生面积减少,但局部地区发生程度加重,东北地区发生程度普遍加重且总体北移的趋势。
Based on China＇ s nationwide poplar canker disease data from 2002 to 2012, and taking the prefecture- level average incidence rate of poplar canker as a prediction indicator, the meteorological data in these prefectures was calculated by ClimateChina v4.40, a climate simulation software. By means of partial least squares regression, the regression equation about the average incidence rate and meteorological factor, i.e. the spatial pattern model of poplar canker average incidence rate, was established, and combined with geo-spatial data and attribute data, the potential trend of poplar canker was predicted. The results show that the spatial pattern model built with 12 meteoro- logical factors has high reliability. Based on the model, it is estimated that compared with the data of 2002--2012, the spatial pattern of average incidence of poplar canker in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s will decrease in area but more severely in some area of North China, Central China and East China. In addition, the disease will cause more seri- ous damage and will move northward in Northeast China.