文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：气候变化下黄枝油杉与江南油杉的潜在适生区预测

英文题名：Prediction of potential suitable areas of Keteleeria calcarea and Keteleeria cyclolepis under climate change

作者：袁艳超[1] 肖文发[1] 刘逸夫[1] 谭灿灿[1] 郭宇锋[2] 王志勇[2] 王军辉[3,4] 贾子瑞[3,4]

第一作者：袁艳超

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,北京100091;[2]北华大学林学院,吉林吉林132013;[3]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,北京100091;[4]林木遗传育种国家重点实验室,北京100091

年份：2025

卷号：47

期号：6

起止页码：30-42

中文期刊名：北京林业大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Beijing Forestry University

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然基金面上项目(32271694)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：油杉属;MaxEnt模型;适生区;气候变化

外文关键词：Keteleeria;MaxEnt model;suitable area;climate change

分类号：S791.15

摘要：【目的】油杉属植物作为优良用材与绿化树种,具有重要的生态和经济价值,但目前全属受威胁,黄枝油杉(濒危)和江南油杉(易危)面临严峻挑战。本研究聚焦于模拟预测气候变化情景下两者的潜在适生区变迁,以揭示其响应规律,为油杉属植物的综合保护策略制定提供理论支撑。【方法】基于收集的黄枝油杉和江南油杉的现存分布点数据,以及从Worldclim下载的19个环境变量数据,利用优化后的MaxEnt模型,模拟这两种油杉在现代、末次间冰期、末次冰盛期、全新世中期以及未来2种温室气体排放情境(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下两个时期(2050s和2070s)的潜在适生区。同时,分析影响适生区分布的关键环境因子。【结果】(1)黄枝油杉和江南油杉的模型预测结果显示,训练集和测试集的曲线下面积均高于0.97,表明模型具有较高的预测精度。(2)现代适生区预测结果与实际分布情况相符。现代,黄枝油杉的总适生区面积为112.15×10^(4)km^(2),江南油杉的总适生区面积159.35×10^(4)km^(2)。过去3个历史时期,黄枝油杉和江南油杉的潜在适生区面积均逐渐扩张,到全新世中期达到最大,分别为76.17×10^(4)km^(2)和128.88×10^(4)km^(2)。未来气候变化情景下,黄枝油杉和江南油杉的总适生区面积略有扩大,分别为向北和西北方向(高纬度)扩张,但高适生区面积极大缩小,尤其是RCP8.5情境下的2070年代,黄枝油杉和江南油杉的高适生区分别缩小为现代的5.88%和4.25%。(3)影响两种油杉潜在适生区分布的关键环境变量均为平均温日较差和最冷月最低温。【结论】研究揭示了温度因子对黄枝油杉和江南油杉分布的决定性作用,其影响显著大于降水因子。自末次间冰期以来,两物种的适生区持续扩张,且这一趋势在未来气候情景下仍将持续。尽管总适生区面积有所扩大,但高适生区的缩减可能对种群生存带来挑战。两物种预计将通过向高纬度地区迁移来应对气候变化,这一发现为制定物种保护策略提供了重要依据。
[Objective]The plants of Keteleeria genus are excellent timber and ornamental tree species,possessing significant ecological and economic values.However,the entire genus is currently under threat,with Keteleeria davidiana var.calcarea(endangered)and Keteleeria fortunei var.cyclolepis(vulnerable)facing severe challenges.This study focused on simulating and predicting the changes in potential suitable habitats of these two species under different climate change scenarios,in order to reveal their response patterns and provide a theoretical basis for the development of comprehensive conservation strategies for Keteleeria genus.[Method]Based on the optimized MaxEnt model,the data of existing distribution sites of K.calcarea and K.cyclolepis and 19 environmental variables downloaded by Worldclim were collected to simulate their suitable areas during the present,last interglacial(LIG),last glacial maximum(LGM),mid-holocene(MH),and two future climate scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5),which covered the periods of 2050s and 2070s.At the same time,key environmental factors affecting their distribution were analyzed and their distribution patterns under future climate change were predicted.[Result](1)The model predictions for K.calcarea and K.cyclolepis showed that the AUC values of both training and test sets exceeded 0.97,indicating high predictive accuracy of the models.(2)The prediction results of modern suitable distribution of K.calcarea and K.cyclolepis were consistent with their actual distributions.In modern times,the total suitable area for K.calcarea was 112.15×10^(4) km^(2) and for K.cyclolepis was 159.35×10^(4) km^(2).In the past three historical periods,the potential suitable areas for both species gradually expanded,with maximum values reached during the mid-holocene:76.17×10^(4) km^(2) for K.calcarea and 128.88×10^(4) km^(2) for K.cyclolepis.Under future climate change scenarios,the total suitable areas for both K.calcarea and K.cyclolepis were projected to show slight expansion northward and northwestward(toward higher latitudes),but the highly suitable areas were expected to dramatically decrease.Particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario in the 2070s,the highly suitable area for K.calcarea shrank to only 5.88%of the modern suitable area,and the highly suitable area of K.cyclolepis was reduced to 4.25%of modern suitable area.(3)The key environmental variables affecting potential distribution of both Keteleeria species were identified as mean diurnal range and minimum temperature of the coldest month.[Conclusion]This study demonstrates that temperature factors play a decisive role in the distribution of K.calcarea and K.cyclolepis,exhibiting significantly stronger influence than precipitation variables.Historical distribution dynamics reveal continuous expansion of suitable habitats for both species since the Last Interglacial period,a trend projected to persist under future climate scenarios.Although the total suitable area shows expansion,the substantial reduction in high-quality habitats may pose critical challenges to population viability.Both species are predicted to respond to climate change through poleward range shifts,a finding that provides essential insights for conservation planning.