文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国林业产业关联分析及未来发展预测

英文题名：The Correlation Analysis of Forestry Industry and Its Development Forecast in China

作者：李秋娟[1] 陈绍志[1] 赵荣[1]

第一作者：李秋娟

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所

年份：2018

卷号：40

期号：3

起止页码：11-15

中文期刊名：林业经济

外文期刊名：Forestry Economics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；

基金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“天然林全面商业禁伐背景下中国木材安全风险及其防范研究”(编号:17BGL248)

语种：中文

中文关键词：林业产业;灰色系统理论;产业结构;灰色预测模型

外文关键词：forestry industrial; gray system theory; industrial structure; gray forecast model

分类号：F307.24

摘要：文章运用灰色关联分析法，分析了中国林业产业与三次产业以及三次产业及其内部产业的关联度，并运用GM（1，1）模型对未来10年中国林业产业总值进行预测。分析结果显示：中国林业总产值与第二产业的关联度最大，第一产业次之，第三产业最小，林业产业总产值与各产业产值显著增加，林业产业仍保持为“二、一、三”的产业格局。未来5年中国林业产业格局将保持不变，但是随着社会经济发展，科技水平提升，林业生产效率提高，未来10年中国林业产业格局将逐渐调整优化，到2022年达到“二、三、一”的产业格局。
Using the gray correlation analysis method, the correlation degree between forestry industrial and its three industries were analyzed, and China＇s forestry grossvalue in the next 10 years was predicted by using the GM （1,1） model. The result showed that： the greatest gray correlation degree of the forestry industry value was the sec- ond industry, which made the greatest contribution to forestry industrial value; followed by the first industry, tertia- ry industry minimum. The forestry industrial value and various industrial value increased obviously, and the industrial structure is in pattern of ＂second, first, third＂. The forestry industrial structure would be unchanged in the next 5 years, but with the social and economic development, improvement of technological level and forestry production etSciency, the forestry industrial structure would be gradually adjusted and optimized in the next 10 years. The forestry industrial structure would become the pattern of ＂second, third, first＂ in 2022.