文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：昆仑山国家公园候选区野牦牛适宜栖息地脆弱性评价

英文题名：Vulnerability assessment of suitable habitats for wild yaks in the candidate area of Kunlun Mountain National Park

作者：张溢[1] 蔡新斌[2] 江晓珩[2] 丛微[1] 黄太福[1] 李佳[3] 张于光[1]

第一作者：张溢

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,生物多样性保护国家林业和草原局重点实验室,北京100091;[2]新疆林科院森林生态研究所,乌鲁木齐830063;[3]中国林业科学研究院生态保护与修复研究所,北京100091

年份：2025

卷号：5

期号：2

起止页码：101-113

中文期刊名：自然保护地

外文期刊名：Natural Protected Areas

基金：第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk1203)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：国家公园;野牦牛;栖息地;气候变化;脆弱性;物种分布模型

外文关键词：national park;Bos mutus;habitat;climate change;vulnerability;species distribution model

分类号：X176

摘要：【目的】研究气候变化背景下野牦牛当前和未来适宜栖息地变化,评估栖息地的脆弱程度,为其保护和昆仑山国家公园建设提供科技支撑。【方法】通过集合物种分布模型(BIOMOD2)结合15种环境变量,评估昆仑山国家公园候选区当前(1980—2010)野牦牛的适宜栖息地分布格局及未来(2050s和2080s)气候变化背景下适宜栖息地的变化。【结果】①在BIOMOD2集合物种分布模型的10种模型中,随机森林(RF)模拟效果最好;组合模型的真实技巧统计值(TSS)为0.885,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.985,表明模拟结果相对可靠;②海拔和最冷季度降水量是影响野牦牛适宜栖息地分布的主要因素;③当前情况下,野牦牛适宜栖息地主要分布在昆仑山国家公园候选区的东北部和中部,68.37%的适宜栖息地位于国家公园候选区,在未来气候变化背景下野牦牛的适宜栖息地面积将出现一定程度的增加。【结论】气候变化背景下,昆仑山国家公园候选区东北部和中部将为野牦牛提供稳定的庇护所,同时高海拔高纬度地区将出现新的适宜栖息地,国家公园应该加强这些区域的重点保护。
【Objectives】To study the current and future changes in suitable habitats for wild yaks in the context of climate change.To this end,we evaluated the vulnerability of habitats,and provided support for the maintenance of the authenticity and integrity of natural ecosystems,as well as the construction of the Kunlun Mountain National Park.【Methods】Using an ensemble of species distribution model(BIOMOD2)combined with 15 environmental variables,we evaluated the current(1980-2010)distribution pattern of suitable habitats for wild yaks in the candidate area of Kunlun Mountain National Park,as well as the impact of future(2050s and 2080s)climate change on suitable habitats.【Results】(1)Among the 10 models of the BIOMOD2 ensemble species distribution model,Random Forest(RF)had the best simulation effect;The true skill statistical value(TSS)of the combination model was 0.885,and the area under the working characteristic curve(AUC)of the subjects was 0.985,indicating that the simulation outcomes were relatively reliable;(2)The altitude and precipitation in the coldest season were the primary factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for wild yaks;(3)Currently,the suitable habitats for wild yaks were predominantly concentrated in the northwest and central regions of the Kunlun Mountain National Park candidate area,with 68.37%of these habitats situated within the national park candidate area.By the 2080s(SSP370),the area of suitable habitat for wild yaks was set to increase significantly.【Conclusions】The northwest and central candidate areas of Kunlun Mountain National Park will provide stable shelters for wild yaks,while new suitable habitats will emerge in high-altitude and high-latitude areas.