文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Seasonal Differences in the Spatial Patterns of Wildfire Susceptibility and Drivers in Southwest Mountains, China

作者：Wang, Wenquan[1] Zhao, Fengjun[2] Wang, Yanxia[3] Huang, Xiaoyuan[3] Ye, Jiangxia[1]

第一作者：Wang, Wenquan

机构：[1] School of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, 650224, China; [2] Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; [3] School of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, 650224, China

年份：2022

外文期刊名：SSRN

收录：EI(收录号：20220330993)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Entropy - Fires - Population statistics

摘要：Wildfires directly affect the stability of global ecosystems and pose a significant threat to human life and property. The mountainous areas of Southwest China have been severely affected by wildfires for a long time. Mapping susceptibility patterns and analyzing the drivers are crucial to effective wildfire management, and considering seasonal dimensions contributes to more accurate and dynamic results. Selecting Yunnan Province of the southwest mountains in China in this paper as an example, the wildfire drivers varying with season were refined. Then, the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility occurring in different seasons was constructed with the help of a tuned maximum entropy mode. Finally, the main drivers leading to the occurrence of wildfires were evaluated. The results show that the optimized maximum entropy models are better in depicting the spatial pattern of wildfire susceptibility for each season, and the area under the curve (AUC) values of all models were greater than 0.8. Driver importance analysis shows that wildfire occurrence in all seasons is significantly affected by population density and proximity to farmland. Furthermore, the dominant wildfire drivers varied with season; NDVI is responsible for spring wildfire, precipitation accounts for summer wildfire, precipitation and temperature from the previous season are related to autumn wildfire, and winter wildfire is due to precipitation. These seasonal variables evidently differ in their marginal effects and consequently affect wildfire across seasons. Our findings improve our understanding of the effects of mid-season variation in environmental variables on wildfire and promote the development of specific seasonal wildfire management. ? 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.