文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响

英文题名：Appling SWAT model to explore the impact of changes in land use and climate on the streamflow in a Watershed of Northern China

作者：郭军庭[1,2] 张志强[1] 王盛萍[3] STRAUSS Peter[4] 姚安坤[1]

第一作者：郭军庭

机构：[1]教育部水土保持与荒漠化防治重点实验室北京林业大学水土保持学院;[2]中国林业科学研究院湿地研究所;[3]华北电力大学资源与环境研究院/区域能源环境系统优化教育部重点实验室;[4]Federal Agency for Water Management,Institute for Land and Water Management Research

年份：2014

卷号：34

期号：6

起止页码：1559-1567

中文期刊名：生态学报

外文期刊名：Acta Ecologica Sinica

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2011】；CSCD:【CSCD2013_2014】；

基金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201204102)资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：土地利用变化;气候变化;产水量变化;SWAT模型;潮河流域

外文关键词：land use change;climate change;runoff change;SWAT model;Chaohe Watershed

分类号：P467

摘要：为定量分析潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,应用SWAT模型对流域上游至下游的大阁、戴营和下会3个水文站径流进行模拟,采用情景法分析径流对土地利用和气候变化的响应。在模型校准期和验证期采用两个参数:p因子和r因子来评价模拟的拟合度及不确定性。结果表明,3个水文站在校准期和验证期的p因子值分别为:0.70和0.77,0.87和0.82,0.92和0.78,r因子值分别为0.63和0.90,0.97和0.79,0.88和0.92,评价整个流域模拟有效性的模型目标函数g最佳值为0.66,说明该模型对潮河流域的产水量模拟具有很好的适用性。以1981—1990年为基准期,1991—2000年流域土地利用变化造成年径流量减少了4.10 mm,而气候变化导致年径流增加了29.68 mm;2001—2009年土地利用变化造成年径流量减少2.98mm,气候变化造成年径流量减少了14.30 mm。与1999年土地利用条件模拟径流值相比,几种极端情景法模拟分析结果表明:灌木林地情景下年径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下年径流增加了4.1%,林地和耕地情景下年径流分别减少23.7%和41.7%;不同气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性,降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加12%,径流平均减少6%。因此,在气候变化背景下,优化土地利用结构与方式是实现流域水资源科学管理的途径之一。
Global warming and intensive changes in land use/cover have posted unprecedented impacts on the watershed hydrology and thus the water security at the global scale. To quantitatively analyze the impacts of land use change and climate variability on the streamflow of Chaohe Watershed located in North China, we calibrated and validated a distributed hydrological model-SWAT by using the multi-site calibration procedure. The effects of land use changes and climate variability on the stream of the watershed were then explored by using scenario analysis approach. Two indices, the p-factor, r-factor as well as efficiency of objective function,were used to assess the calibration/uncertainty performance of the SWAT model at the hydrological stations of Dage, Daiying and Xiahui within the research watershed. Results showed that p-factors in the calibration and validation periods were 0.70 and 0.77, 0.87 and 0.82, 0.92 and 0.78 respectively for the three stations. The r-factors in the calibration and validation periods were 0.63 and 0.90, 0.97 and 0.79, 0.88 and 0.92 respectively for the three stations. The objective function of efficiency of SWAT was 0.66, suggesting that the model was capable for simulating runoff responses to changes of land use and climate variability in the watershed. Compared with the baseline period （1981-1990）, land use change caused an annual streamflow reduction of 4.1 mm whereas climate change gave rise to an annual streamflow reduction of 29.7mm in the period from 1991 to 2000. For the period of 2001-2009 land use change reduced runoff by 3.0 mm, whereas climate change decreased runoff for 14.3 mm. When the land use in 1999 was set as the reference, the annual streamflow would increase by 158.2% and 4.1% for the shrub land scenario and the grassland scenario, respectively. Contrarily, the farmland scenario and the woodland scenario could induce 41.7% and 23.7% annual streamflow reductions, respectively. The climate variability scenario analysis indicated that a 10% increase in annual precipitation could lead to 23.9% annual streamflow increase and a 12% increase in annual mean air temperature could lead to a 6% reduction in annual streamflow. We, therefore, concluded that the annual streamflow variation was more sensitive to precipitation than to temperature in the region. It is of critical importance to develop explicitly integrated ＂cause-effect＂ land use planning and strategies for adaptive land and water management at watershed scale under the global change.