文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：漾濞泡核桃(Juglans sigillata)秋梢危害区分布预测

英文题名：Distribution Predicion of Autumn Shoot Damage of Juglans sigillata

作者：张春华[1] 唐国勇[1] 李昆[1] 和菊[2]

第一作者：张春华

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源昆虫研究所,昆明650233;[2]云南省林业和草原科学院,昆明650241

年份：2019

卷号：17

期号：15

起止页码：5191-5198

中文期刊名：分子植物育种

外文期刊名：Molecular Plant Breeding

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSCD:【CSCD_E2019_2020】；

基金：高原山地典型血防林构建技术体系优化与集成研究与示范(2015BAD070303)资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：漾濞泡核桃(Juglans;sigillata);MaxEnt;秋梢

外文关键词：Juglans sigillata;MaxEnt;Autumn shoot

分类号：S664.104

摘要：了解和把握漾濞泡核桃(Juglans sigillata)发生秋梢危害与环境因子间的关系,为其引种和林分管理、新品种培育提供科学依据。利用漾濞泡核桃在云南发生秋梢危害区域位置信息及生物气象因子数据和最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对其秋梢危害区分布及面积进行预测。通过秋梢发生点间皮尔逊相关系(R)计算,选择了秋梢发生点间R>0.8的年平均温度、年平均降雨量、最干月降雨量来构建漾濞泡核桃秋梢分布区最大熵模型。模型的训练AUC值、测试AUC值分别为0.925、0.842,预测精度能达较好水平。年平均温度对模型的贡献率最高为48.5%,是影响漾濞泡核桃秋梢发生的第一因子;年平均降雨量对模型的贡献率次之为43.7%,为第二影响因子;最干月降雨量对模型的贡献率最小为7.8%,为第三因子影响因子。而年平均温度超过16℃、年平均降雨量超过1 100 mm是漾濞泡核桃发生秋梢危害的主要气象条件,滇中高原的南缘低海拔地带是漾濞泡核桃发生秋梢危害的主要区域。
To unders tand and grasp the relationship between the autumn shoot harm of Juglans sigillata and environmental factors, and provide scientific basis for its introduction, artificial forest management and new cultivar breeding. Distribution and area of autumn shoot damage area in Yunnan were predicted by using the regional position information, biological meteorological factor data and MaxEnt of autumn shoot damage of Juglans sigillata in Yunnan Province. Based on the R calculation of relationship between the occurrence points of autumn shoot, the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month between the occurrence points of autumn shoot that higher then 0.8 were selected to build autumn shoot area maximum entropy model of Juglans sigillata. The prediction accuracy could reach a good level, because the training AUC and testing AUC of MaxEnt were 0.925 and 0.842, respectively. The contribution rate of annual average temperature to the model was the highest of 48.5%, which was the first factor affecting the occurrence of autumn shoot of Juglans sigillata. The contribution rate of annual average precipitation to the model was 43.7%, which was the second influencing factor. The contribution rate of the driest month precipitation to the model was the smallest of 7.8%, which was the third factor. Annual average temperature and annual average precipitation exceed 16℃, 1 100 mm were the main meteorological conditions of autumn shoot damage in Juglans sigillata, and low elevation area on the southern edge of the central Yunnan plateau was the main area of autumn shoot damage of Juglans sigillata.