文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：物种分布模型理论研究进展

英文题名：Advances in theoretical issues of species distribution models

作者：李国庆[1,2,3] 刘长成[2] 刘玉国[2,4] 杨军[2,5] 张新时[2] 郭柯[2]

第一作者：李国庆

机构：[1]西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室;[2]中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室;[3]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所;[4]中国林业科学研究院荒漠化研究所;[5]北京电子科技职业学院生物工程学院

年份：2013

卷号：33

期号：16

起止页码：4827-4835

中文期刊名：生态学报

外文期刊名：Acta Ecologica Sinica

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2011】；CSCD:【CSCD2013_2014】；

基金：环境保护部环保公益性行业科研专项(201209028);国家自然科学基金(40741003);西北农林科技大学12年博士科研启动基金(Z111021309)

语种：中文

中文关键词：物种分布模型;物种生态位模型;气候变化;生态位理论;竞争作用

外文关键词：species distribution model; species niche model; climate change; niche theory; competitive effect

分类号：Q959.837

摘要：利用物种分布模型估计物种的真实和潜在分布区,已成为区域生态学与生物地理学中非常活跃的研究领域。然而,到目前为止,这项技术的理论基础仍然存在不足之处,一些关键的生态过程未能被有效纳入到物种分布模型的理论框架中,从而为解释物种分布模型预测的结果带来了诸多困惑。鉴于此,总结了物种分布模型的理论基础;系统探讨了物种分布模型与物种分布区的关系;特别指出了物种分布模型研究中存在的理论问题;重点阐述了物种分布模型未来的发展方向。研究认为,物种分布模型与生态位理论、源-库理论、种群动态理论、集合种群理论、进化理论等具有重要的联系;正确理解物种分布模型的预测结果与物种分布区的关系,有赖于对影响物种分布的3个主要因素(环境条件、物种相互作用与物种迁移能力)做出定量的分离;目前物种分布模型主要存在的问题是未能将物种的相互作用和物种的迁移能力有效纳入到模型的构建过程中;未来物种分布模型的发展应该加强模型背后理论框架的研究,并进一步加强整合物种相互作用过程、种群动态过程、迁移过程和物种进化过程等内容。研究还认为,从更高的理论层次模拟功能群和群落结构将是未来物种分布模型的重要发展方向。
With the development of spatial techniques in geographic information systems（GIS）,new methods have allowed for robust and detailed preparation of digital models of the earth′s surface elevation,interpolation of climate parameters,and remote sensing of surface conditions in terrestrial environments.These methods in turn have led to greatly enhanced species distribution models（also called species niche models） by providing estimates of environmental conditions and predictions of potential and actual species distribution areas across entire landscapes.Species distribution models have become the subject of active field of research in large-scale ecology and biogeography,and have been used to solve many ecological issues in recent decades.Models are used for biodiversity assessment;biological reserve design;habitat management and restoration;population viability analysis;environmental risk assessment;invasive species management;community and ecosystem modeling;and predicting the effects of global environmental change on species and ecosystems.Species distribution models using species occurrence records（presence only or presence/absence data） associated with environmental variables seek to determine the fundamental niche or realized niche of a particular species,and then to project this niche onto the landscape of interest to reflect the potential distribution area of the species.Results could be interpreted as the probability of occurrence of the species,species habitat suitability or species relative richness.However,there is still insufficient knowledge of the theoretical basis of species distribution models,as some of the key ecological processes have not been incorporated into the framework of these models.This generates substantial confusion when the predicted results of species distribution models are explained.For more efficient use and further development of species distribution models,this study provides： 1） a full overview of the history and recent theoretical advances in the field of species distribution models;2） a systematic discussion of the relationship between species distribution model and species distribution area;3） a highlight of the critical limitations inherent in species distribution models;and 4） a focus on challenges of species distribution models for future research.Results from this study suggest that the theoretical basis of species distribution models is strongly related to niche theory,source-sink theory,population dynamics theory,metapopulation theory,and evolutionary theory.Proper understanding of the relationship between the predicted and actual species distribution area depends on separation of three factors（environmental condition,species interactions and species migration ability） affecting the distribution area of species.The main problems of current species distribution models are that they fail to efficiently integrate species interaction and species migration ability into the model building process,which creates gaps between the predicted and actual species distribution area under normal circumstances.Future development of species distribution models should focus on strengthening their inherent theoretical framework,and must integrate species interactions process,population dynamics process,migration process and evolutionary process into models.This study also suggests that simulating functional groups and community structure from higher theoretical levels is important for the development of species distribution models.We believe that through the efforts of scientists,future species distribution models can overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks and can dynamically model the multi-species potential distribution area,thus providing a more in-depth theoretical study of community ecology and biogeography.