文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于HYSPLIT的新疆林木腐烂病远程传播模拟

英文题名：Simulation of long-distance dispersal of Cytospora canker in Xinjiang based on HYSPLIT model

作者：李全胜[1] 曹姗姗[2] 王蕾[3] 侯瑞霞[4] 孙伟[2]

第一作者：李全胜

机构：[1]新疆农业大学计算机与信息工程学院,乌鲁木齐830052;[2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081;[3]新疆林业科学院资源信息研究所,乌鲁木齐830063;[4]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091

年份：2025

卷号：44

期号：12

起止页码：4177-4186

中文期刊名：生态学杂志

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Ecology

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(32060321);新疆维吾尔自治区2020年度创新环境(人才、基地)建设专项(PT2012)资助。

语种：中文

中文关键词：Cytospora属;远程传播;病害风险预测;轨迹模拟

外文关键词：Cytospora;long-distance dispersal;disease risk forecasting;trajectory simulation

分类号：S763.15

摘要：林木腐烂病已对新疆林果产业造成重大损失。为探究该病害在新疆随气流远程传播的规律、风险时空动态及不同地区流行的可能性,本研究基于HYSPLIT模型结合NCEP全球再分析气象场数据,利用MeteoInfo软件对2013—2022年3—10月期间22个菌源点的腐烂病孢子进行了前向48 h传播模拟。通过对生成的轨迹数据进行频率分析、聚类分析及变化趋势分析,揭示了林木腐烂病在新疆的传播范围、主要传输路线及风险变化趋势。结果表明:(1)林木腐烂病在新疆传播存在明显的区域性、季节性差异。北疆腐烂病传播轨迹主要受西风、西北风影响,传播速度较快、影响范围较广;部分传播轨迹穿越或绕过天山,传播到南疆地区。(2)南疆腐烂病传播轨迹受到东风和东北风影响,南疆西部地区受西北风影响,传播影响范围小于北疆地区的菌源点。(3)2013—2022年间,北疆地区处于传播风险上升趋势的区域更广,南疆地区处于传播风险下降趋势的区域较多;伊犁河谷和阿克陶县部分区域是高危地区。
Cytospora canker has caused significant losses in forest and fruit industries in Xinjiang.To explore the patterns of long-distance spread of this disease with air currents,the spatiotemporal dynamics of risks,and the possibility of its prevalence in different regions in Xinjiang,we conducted a 48-hour forward spread simulation of canker disease spores from 22 inoculum sources during the period from March to October of 2013 to 2022.The simulation was based on the HYSPLIT model combined with NCEP global reanalysis meteorological field data and implemented using MeteoInfo software.Through trajectory frequency analysis,cluster analysis,and trend analysis of the generated trajectory data,we analyzed the dispersal range,primary transmission pathways,and risk evolution patterns of Cytospora canker in Xinjiang.Results showed that:(1)The dispersal of Cytospora canker demonstrated pronounced regional and seasonal variations.In northern Xinjiang,dispersal trajectories were predominantly influenced by the west and northwest winds,with faster transmission speeds and wider affected areas.Some dispersal trajectories crossed or circumvented the Tianshan Mountain to reach southern Xinjiang.(2)The dispersal trajectories in southern Xinjiang were influenced by east and northeast winds.The western regions of southern Xinjiang were affected by northwest winds,with smaller transmission ranges than infection sources in northern Xinjiang.(3)From 2013 to 2022,the areas with an upward trend in transmission risk were more extensive in northern Xinjiang,while there were more areas with a downward trend in transmission risk in southern Xinjiang.Some regions in the Ili River Valley and Akto County were high-risk areas.