文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：不同排放情景下中国西南地区碳汇时空格局及气候影响

英文题名：Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Carbon Sequestration and Climate Impact in Southwestern China under Different Emission Scenarios

作者：鲁庆奥[1] 顾峰雪[2] 於琍[3] 牛保亮[1] 张远东[1] 刘世荣[1]

第一作者：鲁庆奥

机构：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091;[2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,农业农村部旱作节水农业重点实验室,北京100081;[3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

年份：2022

卷号：2

期号：3

起止页码：1-8

中文期刊名：陆地生态系统与保护学报

外文期刊名：Terrestrial Ecosystem and Conservation

基金：国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFD2200401);国家自然科学基金项目(31971460)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：NEP;时空动态;西南地区;温室气体排放情景

外文关键词：net ecosystem productivity;spatio-temporal dynamics;southwestern China;scenarios of greenhouse gas emission

分类号：P467

摘要：【目的】分析2种不同温室气体排放情景下西南地区碳汇时空格局及气候影响,为该区评价未来碳中和能力提供参考。【方法】基于气候模式BCC-CSM1.1输出的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的模拟气候数据,使用生态系统模型CEVSA2估算未来西南地区净生态系统生产力(NEP)动态,分析温度和降水对NEP变化的影响。【结果】2020-2099年RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下西南地区NEP平均值分别为21.49和37.98 g C·m^(?2)·a^(?1)。RCP4.5情景下NEP极显著下降,趋势倾向率为?0.24 Tg C·a^(?1)(P<0.01);RCP8.5情景下NEP极显著上升,趋势倾向率为0.41 Tg C·a^(?1)(P<0.01)。在2种情景下单位面积年均NEP为森林>灌丛>农田>草地。RCP4.5情景下NEP总量为森林>农田>草地>灌丛;RCP8.5情景下NEP总量为森林>农田>灌丛>草地。RCP4.5情景下,4种主要植被类型NEP和年均温极显著负相关(P<0.01),NEP与温度显著负相关的面积占63.5%,与降水显著正相关的面积占21.4%(P<0.05)。RCP8.5情景下,只有森林NEP与年均温极显著正相关(P<0.01),NEP与温度显著正相关的面积占34.9%,与降水显著正相关的面积占21.5%(P<0.05)。【结论】西南地区未来碳汇动态与排放情景密切相关,RCP4.5情景下,净初级生产力(NPP)温度敏感性低于土壤异氧呼吸(Rh)敏感性,导致西南地区NEP下降;RCP8.5情景下,NPP温度敏感性高于Rh敏感性,导致西南地区NEP上升。与目前相比,RCP8.5情景下西南地区未来碳汇在全国所占比重有较大增长。
【Objective】The spatial and temporal pattern of carbon sequestration and climate impact were analysed to provide reference for capacity of regional carbon neutralization in the future in southwestern China under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.【Methods】Based on the simulated data from the climate model BCC-CSM1.1 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,the ecosystem model CEVSA2 was used to estimate net ecosystem productivity(NEP)during 2020-2099 in southwestern China,and to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on NEP changes.【Result】The mean values of NEP in southwestern China under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from 2020 to 2099 would be 21.49 and 37.98 g C·m^(?2)·a^(?1),respectively.NEP decreased significantly by?0.24 Tg C·a^(?1)(P<0.01)under the RCP4.5 scenario,while NEP increased significantly by 0.41 Tg C·a^(?1)(P<0.01)under the RCP8.5 scenario during the same period.Under both scenarios,the mean annual NEP would be forest>shrubland>farmland>grassland per unit area.The total amount of NEP under the RCP4.5 scenario would be forest>farmland>grassland>shrubland,and the total amount of NEP under the RCP8.5 scenario would be forest>farmland>shrubland>grassland in the whole southwestern China.Furthermore,there was an extremely significant and negative correlation between NEP and mean annual temperature in four main vegetation types under the RCP4.5 scenario(P<0.01).The area with a significant and negative correlation between NEP and temperature accounted for 63.5%,while the area with a significant and positive correlation between NEP and precipitation accounted for 21.4%(P<0.05).Under the RCP8.5 scenario,there was an extremely significant and positive correlation between NEP and mean annual temperature only in forest(P<0.01).The area with a significant and positive correlation between NEP and temperature accounted for 34.9%,and the area with a significant and positive correlation between NEP and precipitation accounted for 21.5%(P<0.05).【Conclusion】The carbon sequestration dynamics in southwestern China are closely related to the emission scenarios.Under the RCP4.5 scenario,the temperature sensitivity of net primary productivity(NPP)is lower than that of soil heterotrophic respiration(Rh),which leads to decrease in NEP in the future.However,under the RCP8.5 scenario,the temperature sensitivity of NPP is higher than that of Rh,which leads to increase in NEP in the future.Compared with the present ratio,carbon sequestration in the study area in the proportion of that in the whole China will increase in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario.