文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Consensus Forecasting of Species Distributions: The Effects of Niche Model Performance and Niche Properties

作者：Zhang, Lei[1] Liu, Shirong[2] Sun, Pengsen[2] Wang, Tongli[3] Wang, Guangyu[4] Zhang, Xudong[1] Wang, Linlin[5]

第一作者：张雷

通信作者：Liu, SR[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forestry, Key Lab Forest Silviculture State Forestry Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Forest Ecol Environm & Protect, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Univ British Columbia, Dept Forest Sci, Ctr Forest Conservat Genet, Vancouver, BC V6T 1W5, Canada;[4]Univ British Columbia, Fac Forestry, Vancouver, BC V6T 1W5, Canada;[5]Beijing Agr Univ, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China

年份：2015

卷号：10

期号：3

外文期刊名：PLOS ONE

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84925703401);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000352138500152)】；

基金：This work was funded by the China's National Natural Science Foundation (41301056) and the Special Foundation of Chinese Academy of Forestry (CAFYBB2014QB006, RIF2012-04). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

语种：英文

摘要：Ensemble forecasting is advocated as a way of reducing uncertainty in species distribution modeling (SDM). This is because it is expected to balance accuracy and robustness of SDM models. However, there are little available data regarding the spatial similarity of the combined distribution maps generated by different consensus approaches. Here, using eight niche-based models, nine split-sample calibration bouts (or nine random model-training subsets), and nine climate change scenarios, the distributions of 32 forest tree species in China were simulated under current and future climate conditions. The forecasting ensembles were combined to determine final consensual prediction maps for target species using three simple consensus approaches (average, frequency, and median [PCA]). Species' geographic ranges changed (area change and shifting distance) in response to climate change, but the three consensual projections did not differ significantly with respect to how much or in which direction, but they did differ with respect to the spatial similarity of the three consensual predictions. Incongruent areas were observed primarily at the edges of species' ranges. Multiple stepwise regression models showed the three factors (niche marginality and specialization, and niche model accuracy) to be related to the observed variations in consensual prediction maps among consensus approaches. Spatial correspondence among prediction maps was the highest when niche model accuracy was high and marginality and specialization were low. The difference in spatial predictions suggested that more attention should be paid to the range of spatial uncertainty before any decisions regarding specialist species can be made based on map outputs. The niche properties and singlemodel predictive performance provide promising insights that may further understanding of uncertainties in SDM.